:format(webp)/nginx/o/2025/10/06/17194318t1ha1e4.jpg)
Russia’s Air Defenses Facing Systemic Vulnerabilities
Table of Contents
Depleting Interceptors and Production Shortfalls
Russia is expending more anti-aircraft interceptors than it can produce, creating a systemic vulnerability in its air defense capabilities, according to a report by the Royal united Services Institute (RUSI). Despite the high effectiveness of Russian air defenses and their ability to intercept most Ukrainian strike assets, production of anti-aircraft missiles, radars, and systems is not keeping pace with the demands of the war.
This depletion is occurring even as Russia rapidly learns to intercept Western missiles supplied to Ukraine. For example, it now requires approximately a dozen American ATACMS missiles to destroy a single radar, while onyl about half of British “Storm Shadow” cruise missiles reach their targets.
Drone Tactics and Electronic Warfare Challenges
Ukraine is employing tactics to overcome Russian air defenses, including the simultaneous launch of hundreds of drones to neutralize systems en route before following up with cruise missiles or more powerful drones. However, Russian electronic warfare systems pose a meaningful challenge.
The success rate of GMLRS missiles has declined considerably: from nearly 70% in 2022 to approximately 30% in 2023-2024, and is projected to fall to around 8% in 2025. This decrease is attributed to the effectiveness of Russian electronic warfare capabilities.
Impact of Import Restrictions
Further damage to Russia’s air defense capabilities is possible if the expansion of production is hampered. Analysts note that restrictions on imported electronics-critical components for anti-aircraft missile guidance and computing units-are particularly impactful.
Even the interception of Ukrainian drones and missiles contributes to weakening Russia’s defenses, as Russia’s anti-aircraft missile resources are limited.
