Russia’s Escalating Hybrid Warfare Campaign in Europe
Europe is facing a significant and growing threat from Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics, encompassing everything from disinformation campaigns and cyberattacks to sabotage and drone incursions. What began as a lower-intensity pressure campaign following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine has demonstrably escalated in both frequency and boldness, prompting growing concern among European security officials.
The nature of this hybrid warfare is deliberately designed to operate in a “gray zone,” aiming to undermine support for Ukraine and destabilize European nations without triggering a direct military confrontation. Experts suggest Russia is attempting to exploit vulnerabilities and sow discord within European societies, testing the limits of the continent’s resilience and cohesion.
Recent incidents highlight the diverse range of tactics employed. In Poland, authorities discovered an attempted sabotage of a railway line, where an explosion damaged a section of track. While the damage wasn’t severe enough to cause a derailment, a train engineer’s vigilance prevented a potentially catastrophic incident. This line is crucial not only for passenger travel, carrying thousands daily, but also for the transport of military aid destined for Ukraine.
Beyond physical sabotage, Russia’s hybrid strategy relies heavily on disinformation. Coordinated campaigns are designed to spread false narratives and manipulate public opinion, eroding trust in institutions and exacerbating existing societal divisions. These operations are often coupled with cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure, and jamming of communication signals.
The scope of these activities is expanding geographically. While Eastern European nations bordering Russia have long been considered particularly vulnerable, countries like Germany are now facing increased exposure. Drone incursions, disinformation, and acts of sabotage are occurring with greater frequency, raising alarms about the continent-wide reach of Russia’s efforts.
According to a recent report, the number of Russian sabotage operations across Europe quadrupled in 2024 compared to the previous year, with 34 incidents of arson or serious sabotage recorded, compared to just 12 in 2023 and two in 2022. This surge has prompted a re-evaluation of the threat landscape by both the European Union and the United Kingdom, leading to the development of strategies like the EU’s ProtectEU and the UK’s National Security Strategy.
A concerning trend is the recruitment of individuals, often through encrypted messaging apps, to carry out these acts of sabotage. These individuals are frequently compensated in cryptocurrency, adding a layer of complexity to tracking and disrupting these operations. This “gig-economy” model of sabotage allows Russia to distance itself from direct involvement while still achieving its disruptive goals.
Financing plays a critical role in enabling these activities, acting as both a facilitator and a tool of response. Experts are increasingly focused on understanding how financial flows support sabotage operations and how the public and private sectors can leverage financial mechanisms to counter this threat.
Sviatoslav Hnizdovskyi, founder of the defence technology company OpenMinds, argues that Europe is already in a state of “permanent low-threshold confrontation” with Russia, regardless of whether political leaders explicitly acknowledge it. He emphasizes the need for Europe to recognize and name this condition to effectively address the ongoing challenges.
Western intelligence officials assert that the surge in sabotage acts amounts to a continuous pressure campaign aimed at weakening European resolve and diverting resources away from supporting Ukraine. The escalating nature of these attacks underscores the urgent need for increased vigilance, enhanced security measures, and a coordinated European response to counter Russia’s hybrid warfare strategy.
