Russia’s Victory: A Chilling Scenario for Europe & NATO

A new book by Carlo Masala, a German researcher and professor at the University of Munich, is generating international discussion about the potential consequences of a Russian victory in Ukraine. Published earlier this year, “If Russia Wins: A Scenario,” explores a chillingly plausible chain of events should Vladimir Putin’s forces overcome Ukrainian resistance.

Masala, a member of the senate of the Munich School of Political Science and a lecturer at the Bundeswehr University, has become a sought-after expert on the ongoing full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, now entering its fourth year. His work is gaining traction as Western resolve faces increasing scrutiny and the conflict’s trajectory remains uncertain.

A Welfare State Under Strain

The book warns that Western societies must recognize the fragility of their established welfare states in the face of Russia’s brutal aggression against its neighbor. Masala argues that democratic nations will be forced to curtail social spending to bolster military budgets, as Putin’s Russia will not relent until it has dismantled the existing international order. Maintaining democratic foundations, he contends, will require significant human, social, and economic effort. He asserts that both the European Union and NATO must adapt, better prepare for crisis scenarios, and improve communication at all levels.

How Would NATO Respond?

Masala’s analysis delves into potential responses from the NATO alliance should Putin’s forces succeed in Ukraine and then expand their ambitions. The scenario outlined in the book depicts Russian forces seizing the Estonian border city of Narva and the Estonian island of Hiiumaa in the Baltic Sea in March 2028. This action, following a negotiated peace deal in Ukraine, could trigger Putin’s long-planned incursion into the Baltic states. The central question becomes: how would NATO respond? Would it risk nuclear war?

The author continues his analysis by positing a scenario where the US President is called upon to reaffirm NATO’s commitment to collective defense while China simultaneously conducts maneuvers in Asia to distract from Russia’s aggressive actions. This complex geopolitical interplay underscores the potential for a wider conflict.

A reader from the United States, commenting on the scenario, asks a pertinent question: “What if that doesn’t happen?” Masala seeks to bolster European resolve by explaining the dire consequences of appeasement. He emphasizes that the research is not intended for entertainment, but as a warning of what could occur if Ukraine is forced to cede 20% of its territory.

“What lesson would this victory teach the Kremlin?” asks a reader of The Washington Post. NATO has been built over decades on trust, and only one instance of failure to respond would be enough to cast doubt on its effectiveness. “What would it take for the US to stand with a small Baltic state – like Estonia?” several readers of The Wall Street Journal inquire.

A Stark Warning

“Carlo Masala constructs a frightening story of why Europe needs to strengthen its defense,” notes The Economist. “Russia is still far from victory on the battlefield, even as it spends half its budget on the war. NATO can still survive. But if the West allows its adversaries to win, history will judge its leaders harshly.”

The BBC reports that “Masala’s study is a very serious warning to the West to start talking about Russia’s next moves, and the question of whether the US will be involved in defending Europe.”

George Will, a columnist for The Washington Post, asks whether Russia’s aggression in Ukraine is not the beginning of a decline for the United States.

A fact-based analysis, Masala’s scenario suggests that the primary condition for a Russian victory would not be a ceasefire, but rather Ukraine’s capitulation, leaving the future of American involvement in Europe uncertain, according to Newsweek.

Nordic Defence Review concludes that Masala’s scenario is “a chilling warning about what happens when deterrence is eroded and alliances are unable to operate in a hybrid warfare environment. The scenario is about more than just Estonia: it is about respect for treaties, a clear strategy, and the political courage to deter authoritarian revisionism. While presented as a hypothetical, the scenario should not be dismissed as fiction, but rather as a test for alliance reform, defense readiness, and lasting transatlantic solidarity. The real possibility is not war in 2028, but a crisis today that makes war inevitable tomorrow.”

“This vision of the future is frighteningly realistic, and we must all listen to it,” adds the Dutch newspaper De Volkskrant.