Russia’s Weakening in South Caucasus: New Players Emerge
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As Russia faces unprecedented sanctions following its invasion of Ukraine, its neighbors in the South Caucasus are finding themselves in a delicate geopolitical balancing act. Azerbaijan, leveraging its strategic location and energy resources, has emerged as a crucial transit hub for Russian trade, while Armenia is cautiously rebuilding ties with Turkey and strengthening its Western partnerships.
azerbaijan: The Indispensable Transit Hub
the imposition of sanctions on Russia has inadvertently elevated Azerbaijan’s importance on the global stage.Goods destined for or originating from Russia are increasingly flowing through the country, utilizing its Caspian Sea ports and land routes.
“Turkey has become a key import partner for Russia. Many goods are transported via turkey and Azerbaijan,” explained Ulviyya Asadzade, a journalist with RFE/RL’s Central Newsroom, in a recent interview. “The Istanbul straits are vital, and Azerbaijan is now a crucial hub for Russian gas. We sell oil and gas to Azerbaijan, which then sells it to Europe. This is legal and does not violate sanctions.”
This newfound leverage has not gone unnoticed by Azerbaijan’s leadership. Paul Goble, a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, highlighted the shift in regional dynamics. “Aliyev has finally realized that Moscow needs Azerbaijan at least as much as Azerbaijan needs Russia,” Goble stated. ”When you realize that the other side needs you more than you need it, that changes how you make calculations.”
Energy Diplomacy and Economic Realities
Azerbaijan’s role as an energy supplier to Europe has further solidified its position.the country is increasingly seen as a vital choice to Russian gas, particularly for European nations seeking to diversify their energy sources. This strategic importance allows Baku to navigate its relationship with Moscow from a position of greater strength.
Armenia: Rebuilding Bridges and Looking Westward
Meanwhile, Armenia is charting a different course, seeking to mend fences with its long-time adversary, Turkey, while together deepening its engagement with the United States and the European Union.
Historically strained relations between Armenia and Turkey, exacerbated by the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and past grievances, are showing tentative signs of advancement. In a meaningful diplomatic development, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian visited Turkey in June, meeting with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. This marked the first political working visit aimed at bilateral negotiations, signaling a potential thaw in relations.
Economic Imperatives Drive Rapprochement
For Armenia, opening its border with Turkey is not just a matter of political reconciliation but also an economic necessity. “Armenia is economically dependent on Russia because most of our interaction with external markets runs through Georgia to the Russian market,” noted Mehrabian. “Our border with Iran is open but limited in capacity. Opening the Turkish border would allow Armenia access to European markets.”
Beyond its overtures to Turkey, Yerevan is actively pursuing closer ties with Western powers.”We are working with the EU and the US to elevate cooperation,” Mehrabian added. ”With the US, we have already signed a charter of strategic partnership. With the EU, we have passed legislation aligned with potential membership-even though we no it’s a long road ahead.” this dual approach underscores Armenia’s strategy to reduce its reliance on any single partner and secure its long-term economic and political future.
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Ulviyya Asadzade is a journalist in RFE/RL’s Central Newsroom. She previously spent nearly two decades with RFE/RL’s Azerbaijani Service, covering corruption, human rights, and the geopolitics of the South Caucasus, Russia, Turkey, and Iran. Her work has also appeared in Eurasianet.org, The Bulletin, and Caucasus Edition.*