Sabah Election Results: 5 Insights for Malaysia Politics & Anwar
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Sabah Election Results Signal shift in Federal-State Dynamics, Strengthen Anwar’s Position
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The recent Sabah state election results are poised to reshape the relationship between the federal government and the state, especially regarding revenue sharing and political leverage. Analysts suggest the outcome provides Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim with a stronger hand in negotiations while together bolstering the position of the Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) coalition.
Updated November 30, 2023, 11:55 AM PST
Key Outcomes of the Sabah State Election
The Sabah election, held on September 26, 2023, saw GRS secure a pleasant majority, winning 29 seats in the 73-seat state assembly [Malay Mail].This outcome is meaningful as it represents a stronger mandate for GRS compared to its victory in the 2020 election, when it relied heavily on support from the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia.
UMNO suffered significant losses, winning only five seats, a stark contrast to the 14 it held previously [Free Malaysia Today]. This decline weakens its influence within the state and possibly within the broader federal coalition.
Impact on the 40% Revenue Entitlement
A central issue following the election is the fulfillment of the federal government’s commitment to grant Sabah 40% of revenue collected within the state,as stipulated under the Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63). Arvin said the focus will now shift to this commitment, rather than immediate policy changes.
“Delivering this would significantly improve the credibility of the federal governance in East Malaysia,” he stated. chin from the University of Tasmania believes the election results give Anwar an “easier time” negotiating this issue with Sabah Chief Minister Hajiji Noor.
GRS Gains Leverage in Federal Negotiations
While the election outcome benefits Anwar in some respects, it also strengthens GRS’s bargaining position. Chin predicts GRS will likely request an additional federal deputy minister post in the upcoming cabinet reshuffle, capitalizing on its increased mandate.
In 2020, GRS’s victory was contingent on its alliance with UMNO and bersatu, whose leader at the time, Muhyiddin Yassin, was the prime minister. The current independent majority allows GRS greater autonomy in its dealings with the federal government.
Implications for the Next General Election (GE16)
The Sabah election served as a ”stress test” for the Anwar government’s popularity beyond Peninsular Malaysia and the stability of the ruling coalitions – Pakatan Harapan (PH), Barisan Nasional (BN), and GRS - which form the unity government at the federal level, according to UM’s Awang Azman [The Edge Malaysia].
Awang Azman cautioned that ignoring the lessons from Sabah could lead to growing political undercurrents in other states ahead of the 16th General Election (GE16), which must be held by February 2028.
Analysts Adib from Viewfinder Global Affairs and Asrul Hadi Abdullah Sani from ADA southeast Asia suggest a stronger partnership between PH and GRS is highly likely to emerge in future federal elections. Asrul Hadi emphasized that Anwar’s reliance on Borneo-based parties like GRS will be crucial for PH to secure a parliamentary majority in GE16.