Sally Rooney on Global Fuel Fragility and the Case for Rationing: JPMorgan Warns Oil Prices Still Have Room to Rise
- Global fuel shortages are prompting governments from Asia to Europe to introduce rationing measures as the U.S.-Israel war with Iran disrupts Gulf oil exports, which Goldman Sachs calls...
- The Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important energy transit routes, has been effectively closed by Iran since the United States and Israel launched a widespread...
- The closure has led to price spikes and shortages worldwide, with European airports imposing restrictions on refueling due to jet fuel shortages.
Global fuel shortages are prompting governments from Asia to Europe to introduce rationing measures as the U.S.-Israel war with Iran disrupts Gulf oil exports, which Goldman Sachs calls the “worst” supply disruption in decades.
The Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy transit routes, has been effectively closed by Iran since the United States and Israel launched a widespread bombing campaign against it on February 28, 2026. Around a fifth of the world’s oil flows through the Strait, making it a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies.
Iran has targeted oil-producing Gulf states that host U.S. Military bases, further disrupting oil production. The closure has led to price spikes and shortages worldwide, with European airports imposing restrictions on refueling due to jet fuel shortages. In Italy, four airports in Bologna, Milan, Treviso and Venice have placed restrictions on jet fuel through Thursday, according to an official notice citing limited fuel availability from Air BP Italia.
Flight cancellations and disruptions in the UK have already begun, with Guernsey’s Aurigny airline canceling some flights from mid-April to early June 2026. The disruption has triggered a wave of global energy rationing as nations grapple with potential long-lasting supply chain interruptions.
J.P. Morgan warned on April 2, 2026 that oil prices could spike to $120-$130 per barrel in the near term, with a risk of surging above $150 if supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted into mid-May 2026. The firm cited the ongoing geopolitical tensions as a primary driver of the market volatility.
Iran has used the closure as a bargaining chip, targeting Gulf states aligned with U.S. Interests. President Donald Trump has threatened to attack Iran’s power plants if it does not reopen the Strait, writing on Truth Social on April 5, 2026: “Open the F—in’ Strait, you crazy b—tards, or you’ll be living in Hell.”
The crisis has exposed the fragility of global fuel systems, strengthening the case for strategic rationing measures as countries seek to maintain essential services amid unprecedented energy volatility.