Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline Shutdown: Impact on Global Oil Markets

Saudi Arabia’s crucial East-West oil pipeline remains shut following drone strikes that hit the critical infrastructure on September 11, according to regional authorities and international reports. The 1,200-kilometer Petroline, which serves as a vital alternative route to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, was suspended after explosions caused damage and injuries in the Riyadh and Medina regions.

According to the Saudi Ministry of Energy, the pipeline shutdown was enacted as a precautionary measure following the attacks. Officials traced the launch of the drones to Maysan province in southeastern Iraq near the Iranian border, an area where Iran-aligned armed groups maintain a presence, according to Al Jazeera.

Built in 1981, the Petroline connects eastern oil fields near Abqaiq across the Arabian Peninsula to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. The pipeline features a maximum capacity of 7 million barrels per day (bpd), giving the kingdom a way to ship crude to global markets without sending tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. In the months preceding the shutdown, Saudi Arabia had increased westward flows through the pipeline to between 4 million and 5 million bpd, representing roughly 4 to 5 percent of global supply, as conflicts disrupted traditional Gulf shipping routes.

Damage Estimates and Repair Timelines

The full extent of the structural damage remains unclear, and repair estimates vary significantly among industry sources. Sources familiar with the incident told Reuters that fixing the damaged infrastructure could take anywhere from five to six weeks, while other projections suggest operations could resume sooner.

Prior to the September 11 incident, the International Energy Agency reported that Saudi oil supply had already dropped to a more than three-decade low in August due to reduced shipping flows through both Hormuz and the Red Sea. The current pipeline outage places further strain on an already tight global petroleum market that has seen severe reductions in daily transit through the Strait of Hormuz since the outbreak of the US-Israel war on Iran in February.

Limited Export Alternatives and Storage Buffers

With the East-West pipeline offline, Saudi Arabia’s capacity to maintain steady export volumes relies heavily on drawing down existing crude stockpiles. According to sources cited by Reuters, Yanbu holds enough available crude storage to sustain exports for roughly five to seven days. Additional supplies stored at Egyptian facilities in Ain Sukhna and Sidi Kerir can provide further support for several days, though these buffers offer limited relief if the outage extends for weeks.

In theory, the kingdom can route crude through the Red Sea via the Bab al-Mandeb Strait toward Asian and European markets. In practice, however, that maritime path faces mounting security risks. Houthi forces in Yemen have seized control of the country’s Red Sea coast, capturing strategic islands and the port of Mokha, making transit through the southern Red Sea increasingly hazardous. Tankers that do navigate the area face the prospect of bypassing the Red Sea entirely by sailing around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope, a detour that adds weeks to voyage times and substantially increases operational costs.

To mitigate the shortfall, Saudi Arabia has begun offering additional crude via Oman and shifting shipments, while market analysts monitor whether repairs can be completed before strategic reserves are exhausted.