SCLC Incidence Decline: 2050 Projections
- The incidence of small cell lung cancer (SCLC) is projected to decline considerably in coming decades, largely due to fewer Americans using tobacco products.
- Mariah Malak Bilalaga of MedStar Health, the study's lead author, noted that complete analyses of SCLC incidence at the population level in the U.S.have been limited.
- The research team found a steady and significant decrease in SCLC cases during the study period.
Expect a sharp decline in small cell lung cancer (SCLC) incidence through 2050, according to new projections. This positive trend, a key finding from the American Society of Clinical Oncology 2025 annual meeting, attributes the decrease primarily to reduced tobacco use, a significant win in the fight against cancer. Researchers analyzed comprehensive data from 2000 to 2021, revealing a consistent drop in SCLC cases, with rates down almost 6% annually. The team projects even more considerable declines in coming years. News Directory 3 will continue reporting on innovations in health. Discover what’s next for SCLC treatment and prevention.
Small Cell Lung Cancer Rates Projected to Decline Sharply
updated June 30, 2025
The incidence of small cell lung cancer (SCLC) is projected to decline considerably in coming decades, largely due to fewer Americans using tobacco products. The forecast, presented at the American Society of Clinical Oncology 2025 annual meeting, anticipates an acceleration of the downward trend observed between 2000 and 2021.
Dr. Mariah Malak Bilalaga of MedStar Health, the study’s lead author, noted that complete analyses of SCLC incidence at the population level in the U.S.have been limited. bilalaga and colleagues used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and end Results (SEER 17) database to examine trends. They identified 120,128 adults diagnosed with SCLC from 2000 to 2021. The average age was 67, with an even split between men and women. The majority (82.9%) were non-Hispanic white, followed by non-Hispanic Black (8.1%).
The research team found a steady and significant decrease in SCLC cases during the study period. Age-adjusted data showed a drop from 11.9 cases per 100,000 people in 2000 to 6.0 in 2021, representing an annual percent change of -4.3%. Declines were similar across genders and racial groups.
Analyzing by birth cohort, researchers observed a 7.7% decline in SCLC rates with each successive cohort.
Based on thes historical trends, the study projects an even faster decline in SCLC incidence between 2022 and 2050. The projected annual percentage change is -5.5% for males, -6.2% for females, -6.1% for non-Hispanic whites, and -5.7% for non-Hispanic Blacks. this translates to an annual decrease of 5.9% in small cell lung cancer incidence.
investigators suggest that these declines are likely linked to changing patterns of tobacco use. A 2023 study indicated a significant drop in smoking rates among young adults (18-24) between 2011 and 2022, while rates remained stable for those 65 and older.
The American Cancer Society estimates that approximately 80% of lung cancer deaths are related to smoking. They suggest the actual number may be higher, considering the rarity of SCLC in individuals who have never smoked.
This reduction could be due to a substantial shift in smoking habits, highlighting the importance of tobacco control efforts.
What’s next
Further research is needed to fully understand the reasons behind the decreasing rates of small cell lung cancer. Though, these projections underscore the importance of continued efforts in tobacco control and prevention.