China’s Growing Influence in Southeast Asia: an Expert’s View

⁣ Updated May 30, 2025

China’s rise on the world stage, notably its relationships with Southeast⁤ Asia and South Asia, sparks important debate, according to Selina Ho, Associate Professor at the ⁣Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. Ho’s research focuses on how⁢ China wields power through infrastructure and water disputes.

The Belt and Road Initiative raises questions about infrastructure as a form of power and China’s leadership in shared ⁤river basins. Ho notes⁤ that while much hegemony literature focuses on ⁤the U.S., China’s rise offers a different perspective. Her work also highlights⁣ the importance of infrastructure and ‍water politics as critical,yet frequently enough neglected,economic and security issues.

Ho’s interest in ⁤china began with ⁣its history and role in international politics. Her research was shaped by professors David M. Lampton and Francis Fukuyama, who influenced her understanding of the Chinese⁣ state and the importance of institutions. Experiencing the end of the Cold War and China’s rise further ⁣fueled ⁢her passion to⁢ study Chinese power and influence objectively.

Rail projects bring Southeast Asia closer to China ⁣economically and ⁤strategically, making China a central hub. However, Southeast⁣ Asian countries actively negotiate with China to ensure connectivity on their own terms.Local governments also play a crucial role in project implementation, often challenging demands until satisfied.

In comparing water provision ⁢in China and India, Ho developed a social contract theory. She argues that⁤ China’s performance-based social contract ⁤drives its ability to provide public goods, while India’s populist contract‍ is based‍ on elections.

As⁤ China needs to provide public goods while India needs to provide elections to maintain their social contracts with their peopel,China ends up providing a higher level‍ of public goods to its people.

The border dispute remains a key challenge in the China-India relationship.Despite efforts to⁤ improve relations, events like the Doklam standoff and Galwan Valley clashes highlight ongoing volatility. Ho hopes China and India will⁣ collaborate on climate change and global public health, given their shared incentives as the world’s‍ most populous countries.

Ho ⁢advises ⁤Southeast Asian nations to strengthen ASEAN to navigate⁣ U.S.-China rivalry and prevent domination by a single power. Achieving common ground and working with China to finalize a Code of Conduct on the South China Sea is essential.

A survey of ‍elites from six southeast Asian nations revealed that⁢ while China is ⁣seen⁣ as influential,it ‍lacks the perceived legitimacy to lead the region. these ⁣elites favor ASEAN leadership and identify strongly with a ‍collective ⁢ASEAN⁤ identity.

What’s next

For young scholars of international ‍relations,Ho recommends bridging comparative⁣ politics and international relations to understand⁤ the ⁢domestic drivers of foreign policy. She encourages them to explore these areas and contribute knowledge ⁢that improves society.