Shaping the Future Fight
- In 2020, Justin Lynch, in his article "Yet Another About Information Technology and the Character of War," argued that the United States should actively shape the future character...
- as 2020, the United States military has undertaken critically important modernization efforts.
- These initiatives demonstrate a commitment to technological advancement, but their effectiveness in establishing a decisive advantage remains a subject of debate.
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The US Military’s Struggle to “Write the Future of War”
The Call to Shape, Not Predict, the Future of War
In 2020, Justin Lynch, in his article “Yet Another About Information Technology and the Character of War,” argued that the United States should actively shape the future character of war, rather than passively allowing it to be steadfast by others. This concept centers on the idea that technological advancements and evolving tactics necessitate a proactive approach to military strategy and advancement. The core argument is that waiting to *react* to changes in warfare risks falling behind potential adversaries.
US Military Modernization Efforts (2020-2024)
as 2020, the United States military has undertaken critically important modernization efforts. These include considerable investments in:
- Autonomy and AI-Enabled Decision-Making: Programs aimed at integrating artificial intelligence into military systems for improved situational awareness and faster response times.
- Drone Procurement: Large-scale acquisition of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for reconnaissance, surveillance, and potential combat roles.
- Software Acquisition Reform: Attempts to streamline the process of acquiring and deploying new software solutions for military applications.
These initiatives demonstrate a commitment to technological advancement, but their effectiveness in establishing a decisive advantage remains a subject of debate.
A Critical Gap: Lack of Frontline Observation
Despite these investments, a significant opportunity has been missed: the lack of systematic, in-person observation of frontline innovation, particularly in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The war in ukraine is a real-world laboratory for modern warfare, showcasing the practical request of new technologies and tactics. Direct exposure to these developments is crucial for understanding what truly works.
Without direct observation of weapons production,electronic warfare techniques,and tactical adaptations in a high-intensity surroundings,it’s difficult to develop a granular understanding of battlefield realities. Translating observations into informed doctrine and procurement choices becomes considerably more challenging.
Lessons from Ukraine: A Slow Percolation
The current process for incorporating lessons learned from conflicts is often slow and bureaucratic. Valuable insights frequently take months, even years, to filter through the Department of Defense. This delay hinders the military’s ability to adapt quickly to changing circumstances and maintain a competitive edge.
| Area of Innovation | Observed in Ukraine | Time to Potential DoD Integration (Estimate) |
|---|---|---|
| Drone Warfare Tactics | Extensive use of FPV drones for reconnaissance and attack | 18-36 months |
| Electronic Warfare Countermeasures | Refined jamming and spoofing techniques | 24-48 months |
| Decentralized Command & Control | Empowered small unit leaders making rapid decisions | 12-24 months |