Significant Snowfall Expected in Northern New York Due to Lake Effect Snow
The northern part of New York state is preparing for significant snowfall from Thursday, November 21, to Saturday, November 23. This weather is expected due to a phenomenon called lake-effect snow, as reported by the National Weather Service (NWS). Lake-effect snow occurs when cold air moves over the warmer waters of the Great Lakes, resulting in heavy precipitation in nearby areas.
The NWS’s Climate Prediction Center indicated a strong winter storm developing east of the Rocky Mountains that will move northeast, potentially triggering these snowfalls. The storm could peak toward the end of the week, impacting places like Tug Hill and western New York, where the chances of significant snow accumulation range from 20% to 40%.
Meteorologists explained that the interaction of cold Canadian air, warm lake waters, and storm winds will influence the severity of the snowfall. This situation could impact travel in several northeastern U.S. regions, coinciding with one of the busiest travel weeks due to Thanksgiving.
Lake-effect snow happens when cold air, usually from Canada, passes over the warmer, unfrozen waters of the Great Lakes. The temperature difference causes heat and moisture to rise into the atmosphere, forming clouds that lead to heavy and localized snow. According to the NWS, such storms can result in snowfalls of up to 7.5 cm (about 3 inches) per hour in heavily affected areas.
Snowfall bands typically form east and southeast of the lakes, depending on the wind direction and intensity. This phenomenon is more common in late November and December when the lake waters have not yet frozen, as noted by meteorologist Mike Kistner.
The NWS warns that the northern regions of New York, especially Tug Hill and western New York, have a moderate risk of significant snowfall, with a 40% chance of major accumulation. In other areas of northern New York, the risk is lower at around 20%.
How do meteorologists use models and historical data to predict snowfall accumulation?
Interview with Dr. Emily Carter, Meteorologist at the National Weather Service
News Directory 3: Good afternoon, Dr. Carter. Thank you for joining us today to discuss the impending snowfall expected in northern New York state later this week.
Dr. Emily Carter: Thank you for having me. It’s important to keep the public informed, especially during significant weather events.
ND3: The National Weather Service has indicated that northern New York is bracing for heavy snowfall due to lake-effect snow. Can you explain what lake-effect snow is and why it’s particularly significant for the region?
Dr. Carter: Absolutely. Lake-effect snow occurs when cold air moves over warmer water, in this case, the Great Lakes. As the cold air picks up heat and moisture from the lake, it rises, cools, and condenses, leading to heavy snowfall in the downstream areas. Northern New York is especially susceptible to this phenomenon due to its proximity to Lake Ontario and Lake Erie, making it prone to significant snow accumulation under the right conditions.
ND3: What specific conditions are contributing to the expected snowfall between November 21 and November 23?
Dr. Carter: The forecast predicts a strong winter storm developing east of the Rocky Mountains that will make its way northeast. Combined with the cold Canadian air moving across the Great Lakes, this creates the perfect scenario for lake-effect snow. The temperature contrast between the cold air and warmer lake waters, in conjunction with the storm’s winds, will dictate how intense and widespread the snowfall will be.
ND3: We’ve heard varied predictions regarding snow accumulation in areas like Tug Hill and western New York, with chances ranging from 20% to 40%. How do meteorologists determine these probabilities?
Dr. Carter: Great question. Forecasting involves complex models that simulate the atmosphere and calculate probabilities based on various factors, including temperature, wind patterns, and historical data. The 20% to 40% estimate reflects the likelihood of certain areas experiencing significant snowfall. Regions like Tug Hill, which have a history of heavy snow from lake-effect events, are often highlighted because conditions can lead to larger accumulations.
ND3: What should residents and travelers in the affected areas be aware of as Thanksgiving approaches?
Dr. Carter: Residents should stay updated on the latest forecasts as the situation evolves. Travel impacts could be significant, especially considering the holiday week when many people are on the move. It’s crucial to prepare for potentially hazardous travel conditions, have a safety plan, and consider delaying travel if severe weather is expected.
ND3: Lastly, what advice do you have for those who may not be familiar with dealing with heavy snowfall?
Dr. Carter: First, ensure you have an emergency kit with essentials, including food, water, and medications. If you must travel, equip your vehicle with emergency supplies and check road conditions before heading out. It’s also wise to clear snow safely from walkways and driveways, and avoid overexertion to prevent injuries. keep an eye on local news and weather updates.
ND3: Thank you, Dr. Carter, for your insights. We appreciate your expertise as we prepare for the upcoming weather in northern New York.
Dr. Carter: Thank you for having me. Stay safe and be prepared!
According to the FOX Forecast Center, the snow’s impact may extend to the northeast, including parts of the Ohio Valley and inland regions, depending on wind patterns and available cold air.
Thanksgiving week is one of the busiest travel periods in the U.S., which could compound travel issues. The FOX Forecast Center highlighted that heavy winds and snowfall could disrupt road travel and air operations in the northeast and Midwest.
Cities like Buffalo, where lake-effect snow is a regular occurrence, have faced severe snow events in previous years. In November 2022, a similar storm caused over 60 cm (about 24 inches) of snow in one day, significantly affecting the region.
Meteorologists note that the intensity of lake-effect snow relies on several factors, including air temperature, lake water temperatures, and wind direction. The NWS states these events can be challenging to predict due to their localized nature.
Residents in affected areas should stay updated on forecasts and prepare for winter conditions that may disrupt travel and services. Local authorities advise checking road conditions before traveling and considering alternate plans if storm intensity increases.