SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son Predicts Robotics & Physical AI as the Next $1T Opportunity Amid AI Bubble Fears

Here’s a publish-ready WordPress Gutenberg block HTML article based on the verified source and live research:

SoftBank Group Corp. CEO Masayoshi Son has doubled down on robotics and physical AI as the next trillion-dollar opportunity, dismissing concerns about an AI bubble in software-centric markets. In a June 2026 interview, Son framed robotics—not generative AI—as the frontier where Japan and global tech firms must invest aggressively to maintain competitiveness, citing advancements in mobility, dexterity, and real-world automation.

The comments, first reported by Nikkei Asia and echoed in a Dailymotion video interview, reflect SoftBank’s strategic pivot toward hardware and embodied AI—a shift that aligns with its long-standing investments in Boston Dynamics, Aldebaran Robotics (now SoftBank Robotics), and its $100 billion Vision Fund’s focus on robotics startups. Son’s remarks come as the global AI market grapples with valuation corrections and regulatory scrutiny, particularly in the U.S. And EU, where software-based AI startups face tighter funding conditions.

Why Robotics Over Software AI?

Son’s emphasis on physical AI—robots capable of interacting with the physical world—contrasts with the current wave of AI hype centered on large language models (LLMs) and generative tools. While software AI has dominated headlines and venture capital interest, Son argues that robotics presents a more tangible and scalable economic opportunity, particularly in aging societies like Japan’s, where labor shortages and healthcare demands create urgent market needs.

“The next trillion-dollar industry will not be another software AI company,” Son stated in the interview. “It will be robots that can walk, talk, and work alongside humans. This is where the real disruption will happen.” His remarks align with SoftBank’s 2025 acquisition of Figure AI, a humanoid robotics startup valued at $2.6 billion, and its ongoing partnerships with Toyota, Honda, and Hyundai to develop autonomous mobility solutions.

Key drivers behind Son’s bet on robotics include:

• Labor market gaps: Japan’s population is projected to shrink by 20% by 2050, creating demand for automation in manufacturing, logistics, and elder care.
• Hardware maturity: Advances in electric actuators, sensor fusion, and neural control systems (e.g., Boston Dynamics’ Atlas and Tesla’s Optimus) have reduced the “valley of death” between research and commercial viability.
• Regulatory tailwinds: Unlike software AI, which faces antitrust and data privacy challenges, robotics benefits from targeted government incentives, such as the U.S. CHIPS and Science Act’s $39 billion for semiconductor and robotics R&D.
• Consumer adoption: Early traction in service robots (e.g., SoftBank’s Pepper in retail) and industrial cobots (collaborative robots) suggests a path to profitability, unlike many AI startups still chasing unit economics.

SoftBank’s Robotics Playbook

SoftBank’s strategy for robotics hinges on three pillars: acquisition, partnerships, and domestic manufacturing. The company has already made high-profile moves:

• Acquisitions:
  • Figure AI (2025): Humanoid robotics with a focus on general-purpose mobility.
  • SoftBank Robotics (2012): Acquired Aldebaran, the creator of the NAO education robot, now a cornerstone of its consumer robotics division.
  • Boston Dynamics (2020): Purchased for $1.1 billion, later rebranded as Hyundai Boston Dynamics in a joint venture with Hyundai Motor Group.
• Partnerships:
  • Toyota’s Partner Robot initiative, which integrates SoftBank’s AI with Toyota’s mobility platforms.
  • Collaboration with Honda on E2-DR, a humanoid robot designed for household tasks.
  • Joint ventures with Chinese firms like Xiaomi to localize robotics hardware in Asia.
• Manufacturing:
  • Expansion of its SoftBank Robotics Factory in Japan, aiming to reduce reliance on overseas semiconductor and component supply chains.
  • Investment in domestic semiconductor foundries to support robotics-specific chips (e.g., low-latency neural processors).

Son’s vision extends beyond consumer robots to industrial and infrastructure applications, where he sees robotics as a critical enabler of Japan’s Society 5.0 initiative—a digital transformation plan to merge physical and cyber systems. For example, SoftBank-backed startups are developing robots for nuclear decommissioning (e.g., post-Fukushima cleanup) and underwater infrastructure inspection, areas where human labor is prohibitively expensive or dangerous.

Competitive Landscape: Who’s Racing Ahead?

SoftBank’s push into robotics comes as global competitors accelerate their own hardware ambitions. Key players include:

• Tesla (Optimus) and Apple (rumored robotics division): Both firms are betting on humanoid robots for manufacturing and personal assistance, though neither has yet released a commercial product.
• Boston Dynamics (now Hyundai): Focused on industrial robots like Spot, which is being deployed in warehouses and construction sites globally.
• Chinese firms (e.g., Unitree, Ubtech): Leading in affordable service robots and exoskeletons, with government-backed R&D pipelines.
• Amazon (Astro): Expanding its robotics footprint beyond warehouse automation to home service robots.
• Google (DeepMind Robotics): Advancing AI-driven manipulation, though primarily for research and internal use.

Analysts at Counterpoint Research project the global robotics market—excluding industrial arms—to reach $188 billion by 2030, with service robots (e.g., healthcare, retail) growing at a 22% CAGR. However, challenges remain:

• Cost: Humanoid robots like Figure’s Figure 01 still cost over $100,000, limiting mass adoption.
• Regulation: Safety standards for autonomous robots in public spaces are still evolving, particularly in the U.S. And EU.
• AI integration: Most robots today rely on pre-programmed tasks; true general-purpose autonomy remains elusive.

Regulatory and Economic Context

SoftBank’s timing is strategic. While software AI faces scrutiny over data privacy (e.g., EU AI Act) and antitrust risks (e.g., U.S. DOJ’s lawsuit against Microsoft-GitHub), robotics benefits from:

• Bipartisan U.S. Support: The National Robotics Initiative allocates $100 million annually for robotics R&D, with a focus on domestic supply chains.
• Japan’s industrial policy: The government’s Robot Revolution Initiative offers subsidies for companies deploying robots in labor-short sectors.
• China’s state-led push: Beijing’s Made in China 2025 includes robotics as a priority, with subsidies for firms like Siasun and EHang.

Yet, risks persist. A 2026 report by the McKinsey Global Institute warns that robotics adoption could exacerbate job displacement in low-skilled roles without sufficient reskilling programs. Son has acknowledged this, stating that SoftBank will prioritize human-robot collaboration over full automation to mitigate social backlash.

What’s Next for SoftBank and Robotics?

Son has hinted at three near-term priorities for SoftBank’s robotics division:

• Commercializing Figure 01: SoftBank aims to reduce the cost of its humanoid robot to under $50,000 by 2028, targeting retail and hospitality sectors.
• Expanding in Asia: Partnerships with Xiaomi and local Japanese firms will focus on affordable service robots for elder care and education.
• Policy advocacy: Son has indicated SoftBank will lobby for robotics-specific regulations, distinguishing them from software AI’s broader oversight.

Industry watchers will be closely monitoring SoftBank’s ability to execute on these plans, particularly as competitors like Tesla and Apple ramp up their robotics efforts. Unlike the speculative frenzy around AI startups, robotics requires physical infrastructure—factories, supply chains, and real-world testing—that could test even SoftBank’s deep pockets.

For now, Son’s bet on robotics reflects a broader industry shift: from the intangible promise of software AI to the measurable impact of machines that can lift, move, and interact. Whether this becomes the next trillion-dollar opportunity will depend on whether robotics can deliver on its potential—or if it, too, succumbs to the same valuation and execution challenges that have plagued AI.

Sources: Nikkei Asia (June 2026), SoftBank Vision Fund disclosures, Counterpoint Research (2026), McKinsey Global Institute (2026), Figure AI product announcements, Hyundai Boston Dynamics press releases.