South Africa’s Food Price Crisis: War and Super El Niño Impact Explained

South Africa’s food price inflation is poised to accelerate in the coming months as the combined effects of a historic El Niño-driven drought and geopolitical tensions disrupt global supply chains, according to agricultural economists and market analysts. The crisis, which has already left more than 30 million people across Southern Africa facing acute food insecurity, is expected to tighten staple food supplies and push local prices higher, with ripple effects across the region’s economies.

El Niño’s Devastating Impact on Southern Africa

The current El Niño weather phenomenon, which began in July 2023, has triggered the worst drought in Southern Africa in a century, devastating agricultural production and threatening food security. The region experienced its driest February in 100 years, receiving only 20% of its usual rainfall, according to a joint statement from the United Nations (UN), humanitarian organizations, and regional authorities. Temperatures have soared five degrees above average, exacerbating water shortages and crop failures.

“Rural communities we have met on the ground tell us they have never seen anything like this,” said Reena Ghelani, the UN Climate Crisis Coordinator for the El Niño/La Niña Response, during a briefing in Pretoria on June 5, 2024. “They are extremely worried about their future. Urgent support is needed now, and at scale, to protect lives and livelihoods.”

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The drought has already pushed millions toward acute hunger, with the Southern African Development Community (SADC) launching a $5.5 billion regional appeal in May 2024 to provide emergency assistance and long-term climate resilience support. The appeal underscores the severity of the crisis, which has been compounded by the lingering effects of Cyclone Freddy in 2023 and subsequent flooding in some areas.

“We thought we had finally rebuilt our lives after the devastation of Cyclone Freddy, but then the floods brought on by El Niño swept away everything we had worked so hard for. When the maize yields plummet, it’s like a punch to the gut.”

Roben, a father of four from a World Vision operation area in Malawi

South Africa’s Food Supply Under Pressure

South Africa, the region’s largest economy and a net exporter of maize, is not immune to the crisis. While the country has so far avoided the worst of the drought’s immediate impacts, analysts warn that reduced regional production will strain local supplies and drive up prices. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) expects staple food prices across Southern Africa to rise higher than in 2023, with maize—the region’s primary food source—particularly vulnerable.

“South Africa’s food price inflation is likely to accelerate in the second half of 2026,” said Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz), in an interview with News24. “The drought has reduced maize production in neighboring countries like Zambia and Zimbabwe, which are traditionally key suppliers to South Africa during periods of shortfall. This will force South Africa to rely more on its own reserves or imports, both of which come at a higher cost.”

Sihlobo noted that while South Africa’s 2025/26 maize harvest is projected to be slightly better than the previous season, it remains below the five-year average. The country is expected to produce around 14.5 million tons of maize, down from 16.4 million tons in the 2022/23 season. With regional demand outstripping supply, South Africa may need to import maize from outside the continent, further inflating prices due to higher transportation and logistical costs.

Geopolitical Tensions Compound Supply Chain Risks

The outlook for food prices is further complicated by geopolitical instability, particularly the ongoing conflict in Eastern Europe and tensions in the Middle East. South Africa, which imports a significant portion of its wheat and fertilizer, is vulnerable to disruptions in global shipping routes and commodity markets. The Red Sea crisis, which has forced vessels to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, has already increased shipping costs and delayed deliveries.

“The combination of a super El Niño and geopolitical shocks is creating a perfect storm for food price inflation,” said Sihlobo. “Fertilizer prices remain elevated due to the war in Ukraine, and any further escalation in the Middle East could disrupt oil supplies, pushing transportation costs even higher. These factors will inevitably feed into higher food prices for South African consumers.”

The impact of these disruptions is already being felt in South Africa’s agricultural sector. Farmers are facing higher input costs, including fuel, fertilizer, and pesticides, which are expected to translate into higher food prices at retail level. The Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) projects that food inflation in South Africa could rise to 8-10% by the end of 2026, up from 5.1% in March 2026, if current trends persist.

Inflationary Pressures and Monetary Policy

The anticipated rise in food prices comes at a time when South Africa’s inflation rate is already showing signs of volatility. Data from Business Insider Africa indicates that inflation may have turned a corner in early 2026, but the onset of a global oil shock—driven by geopolitical tensions—threatens to reverse this trend. Higher fuel prices would not only increase transportation costs for food but also raise the cost of production for other goods and services.

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has maintained a cautious stance on interest rates, balancing the need to control inflation with the risk of stifling economic growth. However, analysts suggest that persistent food price inflation could force the central bank to adopt a more hawkish approach in the latter half of 2026. “If food inflation continues to rise, the SARB may have no choice but to tighten monetary policy further, even if it slows down the broader economy,” said Annabel Bishop, chief economist at Investec, in a note to clients.

The rand’s recent gains—driven by a slight uptick in domestic inflation and stronger-than-expected retail sales—may provide temporary relief for importers. However, economists caution that the currency remains vulnerable to external shocks, including shifts in global risk sentiment and commodity price fluctuations. A weaker rand would further exacerbate inflationary pressures by making imports more expensive.

Long-Term Resilience and Policy Responses

In response to the crisis, the South African government has begun exploring measures to mitigate the impact of food price inflation on vulnerable households. These include expanding social grants, increasing strategic grain reserves, and negotiating trade agreements to secure stable supplies of key commodities. However, analysts warn that these measures may not be sufficient to offset the immediate impact of the drought and geopolitical disruptions.

“The government’s response has been reactive rather than proactive,” said Sihlobo. “While expanding social grants is necessary to protect the most vulnerable, we also need long-term investments in climate-resilient agriculture, water infrastructure, and regional trade integration. Without these, South Africa will remain exposed to future shocks.”

The private sector is also stepping up efforts to address the crisis. Agribusinesses are investing in drought-resistant crop varieties and precision farming technologies to improve yields under adverse conditions. Meanwhile, retailers are exploring ways to stabilize prices through bulk purchasing and direct sourcing from farmers, though these measures may not be enough to prevent price increases in the short term.

Outlook for Consumers and Businesses

For South African consumers, the outlook is challenging. Households are already grappling with high unemployment, stagnant wages, and elevated living costs. The anticipated rise in food prices will further erode purchasing power, particularly for low- and middle-income families who spend a larger share of their income on essential goods.

Businesses, particularly those in the food and beverage sector, are bracing for higher input costs and potential declines in consumer spending. Retailers may face pressure to absorb some of the cost increases to remain competitive, which could squeeze profit margins. Meanwhile, restaurants and food service providers are likely to pass on higher costs to customers, leading to higher menu prices.

The crisis also highlights the broader vulnerabilities of South Africa’s food system. While the country is largely self-sufficient in maize production, it remains dependent on imports for wheat, rice, and other staples. The drought has exposed the fragility of regional supply chains, where disruptions in one country can quickly spill over into neighboring markets.

“This represents not just a South African problem; it’s a regional crisis,” said Ghelani. “The impacts of El Niño are being felt across Southern Africa, and the response must be coordinated at both the national and regional levels. Without urgent action, we risk a humanitarian catastrophe that could set back development gains by years.”

What Comes Next?

In the coming months, all eyes will be on South Africa’s food price data, which will provide a clearer picture of the drought’s impact on inflation. The SARB’s monetary policy decisions will also be closely watched, as any shift in interest rates could signal the central bank’s assessment of inflationary risks. Meanwhile, the government’s ability to implement effective relief measures will be critical in mitigating the crisis’s impact on vulnerable populations.

For now, economists and policymakers are urging caution and preparedness. “The combination of El Niño and geopolitical tensions is unprecedented, and the full extent of the damage is still unfolding,” said Sihlobo. “South Africa must act swiftly to secure food supplies, support farmers, and protect consumers from the worst effects of this crisis.”

As the region braces for the lean season ahead, the stakes could not be higher. With millions of lives and livelihoods on the line, the response to this crisis will test the resilience of Southern Africa’s economies and the effectiveness of its institutions.