South Korea Population Decline: 85% Crash Forecast
- South Korea's population decline could reach a staggering 85% over the next century if current trends persist, according to a new study.The Korean Peninsula Population Institute for Future...
- Even under the most optimistic scenario, the study projects a population of just 15.73 million by 2125, less than one-third of the current size. The median estimate forecasts...
- The institute utilized the cohort-component method, an internationally recognized approach, to project future population changes based on fertility, mortality, and migration trends. The report underscores the unusually rapid...
South Korea’s population faces a dramatic decline, with a new study forecasting an 85% crash in the next century due to dramatically low birth rates. This significant demographic shift, driven by economic factors influencing decisions around marriage and parenthood, presents critical challenges. The nation’s total fertility rate remains far below replacement levels, leading to an aging population and a shrinking workforce. Read more at News Directory 3 to understand the potential impacts of declining birth rates and the strategies South Korea might consider. Discover what’s next …
South Korea Faces Steep Population Decline, Study Warns
Updated July 03, 2025
South Korea’s population decline could reach a staggering 85% over the next century if current trends persist, according to a new study.The Korean Peninsula Population Institute for Future released the report Wednesday, highlighting the nation’s ongoing struggle with low birth rates and an aging population, a critical demographic challenge.
Even under the most optimistic scenario, the study projects a population of just 15.73 million by 2125, less than one-third of the current size. The median estimate forecasts 11.15 million residents. In a worst-case scenario, the population could plummet to 7.53 million, a sharp contrast to the current 51.68 million. That figure is smaller than Seoul’s current population of more than 9.3 million.
The institute utilized the cohort-component method, an internationally recognized approach, to project future population changes based on fertility, mortality, and migration trends. The report underscores the unusually rapid pace of South Korea’s demographic shift.
The declining birthrate is compounded by a shrinking base of potential parents, accelerating the overall population decrease.Younger generations prioritize financial stability and housing over love when considering marriage,the study found. Economic pressures are a primary concern when discussing having children, suggesting that economic factors play a more significant role than personal choice in decisions about marriage and parenthood.
The projections indicate that in a worst-case scenario, by 2100, every 100 working-age individuals could support 140 seniors.Currently, 100 working-age peopel support approximately 30 seniors, signaling a shift toward an “inverted pyramid” society, where the elderly dependent population considerably outweighs the workforce.
What’s next
South Korea faces significant demographic pressure as it grapples with one of the world’s lowest birth rates and a rapidly aging population. As of 2024, the country’s total fertility rate stands at just 0.75, remaining far below the replacement level.