S&P 500: Market Rally & Seasonal Trends
- The SPX demonstrated a 23.67% gain in 2024, according to recent analysis.An initial long position was taken on May 15,2025,at 5916.93.
- Seasonality trends suggest a potentially strong period from May 24 to June 5.
- A potential head and Shoulders pattern appears to be forming on the SPY weekly chart.
SPX and GDX Analysis: Bullish Trends Continue
Updated May 30, 2025
The SPX demonstrated a 23.67% gain in 2024, according to recent analysis.An initial long position was taken on May 15,2025,at 5916.93. A previous long position, sold on April 11, 2025, yielded a 21.33% gain.
Seasonality trends suggest a potentially strong period from May 24 to June 5. The SPY,after briefly dipping below March lows,closed above them in early May,indicating a possible move toward previous highs around 610. Resistance is anticipated at that level, potentially signaling an exit point for long positions in the SPX.
A potential head and Shoulders pattern appears to be forming on the SPY weekly chart. The left shoulder developed between December 2024 and January 2025, with the head forming at the April 2025 low. The right shoulder is currently developing and may extend into July or August.This pattern suggests a measured target near 740 on the SPY, more than 25% above current levels. Support is expected around 575, coinciding with a gap and the high from the week of March 24.
Analysis indicates that while consolidation may occur in the short term, the overall trend for GDX remains upward. Monthly charts show solid buy signals, with both the monthly GDX cumulative up-down volume and advance/decline indicators staying above their mid-monthly Bollinger bands, reflecting increasing internal strength.
What’s next
Investors should monitor the SPY for resistance near 610 and support around 575. Continued strength in GDX indicators suggests further upside potential, though short-term consolidation is absolutely possible. Keep an eye on the developing Head and Shoulders pattern for potential targets.