The Moody’s qualification agency has followed the stele of Standard & Poor’s and has uploaded the Spanish sovereign debt note, moving to the A3 level with a stable perspective, the seventh step of its ranking, from Baa1. It is the first time since 2012, in the worst of the European debt crisis, that Spain leaves the ‘B’ range of that agency. The last time the agency had improved the Spanish debt note was in 2018. A few minutes later, Fitch Ratings has improved the long-term credit rating of Spain of ‘A-‘ A ‘A’, with a stable perspective.
Fitch Ratings ha Improved long-term credit qualification of Spain from ‘A-‘ A ‘A’, with a stable perspective. “The economic performance of Spain has exceeded expectations and has far exceed analysis.
Fitch foresees that the economy will remain resilient, thanks to the limited exposure to American tariffs and the continuous net external disappointment. “The recent productivity profits, moderate salary growth and relatively low energy prices have promoted external competitiveness and strengthened private external balances,” he explains.
Fitch also improves GDP growth forecast for Spain to 2.7% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026, reflecting a quarterly growth higher than the one provided in the first half of 2025.
In it Moody’s document, The agency points as the main reasons for that ascent the strong growth of the country’s GDP, the reduction of external debt and the growing resilience of the economy Spanish. Moody’s points to the structural reforms of the past decade, the strong disappointment and the increase in immigration, which supports growth.
“The decision to improve Spain’s qualification to A3 reflects our opinion that the economic strength of Spain is improving due to a more balanced economic growth modelimprovements in the labor market and a strengthening of the banking sector that increase the resilience of the economy, “says economists.
And they add: “In the coming years, the restrictions of the labor offer will be relieved thanks to positive net migratory flows and incentives to prolong working life. The competitive advantage of Spain in the production of renewable energies also promotes the growth and macroeconomic stability. In turn, a solid economic environment allows a gradual improvement of the public debt load, which we will continue.
All of the above It was already included in the justification of S&P to improve the rating of Spain Two weeks ago. In his case, he updated his credit rating of ‘A’ A ‘A+’, which meant the first improvement for Spain of this agency since 2019. Standard & Poor’s, in turn commented that only a deterioration of the deficit or current account balance could motivate a reduction of the downward qualification in the coming years.
Spain suffered the greatest collapse of its debt grades between 2010 and 2012. In those years, the financial crisis derived from the real estate bubble caused the external debt of Spain to shoot. Although the country had a much better level than the current one in proportion to its GDP, the collapse of numerous banks and savings banks and the march of foreign lenders left Spain in a very weak position. The risk premium – the differential between the interests of the Spanish and the German debt – rose to levels never seen from the introduction of the euro, and the debt rating agencies lowered the ‘rating’ of Spain of its maximum level, the ‘AAA’, at the level ‘B’, seven steps or more below. The ‘comeback’ began as of 2018, when the country began to approach the ‘A’ level.
Good prospects
GDP growth estimates are located in the first line within the Eurozone for this year. And by 2026 it would still be above the average, according to the market consensus that Bloomberg collects. The market consensus awaits a 2.5% growth for this year and 2% for which it is to come. With the latest forecasts of the International Monetary Fund, the expansion of the Spanish economy also reflects a rhythm that other eurozone economies do not replicate.
Besides, not only is greater growth expected, but The review of the latest data, the first and second quarter of the year also collect greater growth of the initial calculated. “In summary, the Spanish economy continues to show a strength superior to anticipated. Domestic demand remains the engine of growth,” they say from the Bankinter analysis department.
Similarly, the fiscal situation of Spain is not at the level as the French or the German. And it is that while other euro zone economies shoot if fiscal deficit, Spain contains it until it reduces the weight of public debt compared to GDP to 103.5% with the latest available data. The France ratio is over 114.1%. And that of Italy over 137.9%, according to data collected by Eurostat.
