Spain Launches MamoRisk Study to Predict Personalized Breast Cancer Risk

Spain has launched MamoRisk, the first national study designed to create a statistical model that predicts an individual woman’s risk of developing breast cancer in the short and medium term. According to reporting from Onda Cero Sur and La Portada de Extremadura, the project uses genetics, lifestyle data, and mammographic characteristics to classify patients into low, intermediate, and high-risk categories to personalize screening schedules.

The initiative is led by the Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria de Santiago de Compostela (IDIS), working in collaboration with the Centro Nacional de Investigaciones Oncológicas (CNIO) and the Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria Galicia Sur (IISGS), as reported by La Portada de Extremadura.

Extremadura is among 14 autonomous communities participating in the study. The regional government’s involvement is part of a broader effort to increase early detection; since 2023, Extremadura has expanded its breast cancer screening age to 47, with a stated goal of progressively extending it to 45, according to Onda Cero Sur.

MamoRisk Participant Selection and Data Collection

The study will involve 10,000 women selected randomly from those who have at least six years of follow-up within existing breast cancer early detection programs, according to Onda Cero Sur. The cohort is split between 4,000 women previously diagnosed with breast cancer and 6,000 healthy women.

Researchers will gather a comprehensive dataset for each participant to build the predictive model. According to La Portada de Extremadura, this data includes:

• Clinical and epidemiological records.
• Lifestyle habits.
• Genetic information obtained through saliva samples.
• Radiological characteristics from mammograms.

The project will move through several phases, beginning with the collection of biological samples and clinical data, followed by genetic and radiological analysis, and ending with an evaluation of the model’s predictive accuracy, according to Onda Cero Sur.

Integration of Artificial Intelligence in Risk Assessment

A central component of the MamoRisk project is the use of artificial intelligence to analyze mammographic images. According to La Portada de Extremadura, AI will be used to study specific characteristics of these images to identify patterns that may signal a higher risk of cancer.

Once the model generates a risk prediction for a participant, researchers will compare that estimate against the actual health evolution of the women in the study. This verification process determines if the statistical model can reliably anticipate the onset of the disease, according to Onda Cero Sur.

Impact on Public Health Screening Programs

The ultimate goal of the MamoRisk study is to move away from a one-size-fits-all screening approach. If the model proves effective, women classified as high-risk would become candidates for more intense and frequent monitoring, according to Onda Cero Sur.

This personalized approach aims to detect cancer at an earlier stage or, in some instances, allow for the application of targeted preventive measures before the disease develops, according to La Portada de Extremadura.

By categorizing women into low, intermediate, and high risk, the Spanish health system could implement more efficient screening programs that allocate resources toward those with the highest statistical probability of developing the disease, according to Onda Cero Sur.