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A regional election in Extremadura, Spain, on Sunday, June 9, 2024, is widely expected to be a meaningful setback for prime minister Pedro Sánchez‘s Socialist party, fueled by recent corruption and sexual misconduct allegations.The outcome will also serve as a bellwether for upcoming regional elections in 2026.
Election Background and Context
The snap election in Extremadura, a region of approximately one million inhabitants in southwestern Spain, was triggered by the failure of the regional conservative government to pass a 2026 budget as reported by Reuters. This created a political crisis and led to the calling of early elections.
The election is being closely watched as a key indicator of public sentiment towards Sánchez and his Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) following a series of controversies. These include allegations of corruption involving his wife and questions surrounding the conduct of a senior party official.
Polling Data and Expected Outcomes
Current polls indicate that the conservative People’s party (PP) is likely to win the election but will likely fall short of an absolute majority in the 65-seat regional parliament. El País provides detailed polling data and analysis.
The PSOE is predicted to suffer significant losses. A survey published on June 3, 2024, in the newspaper El Mundo suggests the Socialists could lose up to nine seats, dropping from 28 to as few as 19 El Mundo. This would represent a substantial blow to the party’s influence in the region.
| Party | Seats (2023) | Projected Seats (June 2024) |
|---|---|---|
| PP (People’s Party) | 23 | 28-31 |
| PSOE (Socialist Workers’ Party) | 28 | 19-22 |
| Vox | 5 | 6-8 |
| Other | 9 | 4-6 |
The far-right Vox party is also expected to gain ground, potentially complicating government formation. Some analysts suggest Sánchez might be forced to consider a coalition with Vox to maintain power, a scenario he has publicly denounced as a “historical mistake.”
Implications for National Politics
The outcome of the Extremadura election is expected to have repercussions beyond the regional level. It will be a crucial test of Sánchez’s political strength ahead of regional elections scheduled in Andalusia, Aragón, and Castile and León during the first half of 2026.
A poor showing for the PSOE could embolden opposition parties and increase pressure on Sánchez to call a general election. It could also further destabilize the already fragile political landscape in Spain.
