Strategic Alliances: Disciplining Big Powers | ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute
Kuala Lumpur – A growing chorus of voices in Southeast Asia is advocating for a recalibration of regional diplomacy, urging the formation of strategic inter-regional alliances to counterbalance the influence of major global powers. The call, articulated by Dr. Ooi Kee Beng, Visiting Senior Fellow with the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, reflects a rising concern over the increasingly assertive geopolitical competition between the United States and China, and the potential for smaller nations to be caught in the crosscurrents.
The argument, gaining traction in policy circles across the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), centers on the premise that traditional reliance on individual bilateral relationships with major powers is no longer sufficient to safeguard regional interests. Instead, a more coordinated and collective approach, leveraging alliances with other regional blocs – notably those in Africa and Latin America – is seen as a necessary step towards establishing a more multipolar world order.
Dr. Ooi’s analysis, published on , highlights a perceived need to “discipline” the behavior of major powers through a unified front. This isn’t necessarily framed as outright confrontation, but rather as a means of establishing clear boundaries and expectations, ensuring that the interests of smaller nations are not overlooked in the pursuit of great power competition. The concept builds on existing ASEAN principles of centrality and non-interference, but proposes a more proactive and assertive application of those principles on the global stage.
The impetus for this shift in thinking stems from several factors. The escalating tensions in the South China Sea, where overlapping territorial claims involving China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei continue to simmer, have underscored the limitations of relying solely on dialogue and international law. While ASEAN has consistently called for a peaceful resolution based on the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), China’s continued construction of artificial islands and military installations in the disputed waters has raised concerns about its commitment to upholding international norms.
Beyond the South China Sea, the broader strategic rivalry between the US and China is impacting Southeast Asia in numerous ways. The US, under successive administrations, has sought to strengthen its alliances in the region as a counterweight to China’s growing influence. This has included increased military cooperation, economic partnerships, and diplomatic engagement. However, this approach has also been met with skepticism by some ASEAN members, who are wary of being forced to choose sides in a great power contest.
China, for its part, has deepened its economic ties with Southeast Asia through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), offering substantial infrastructure investments and trade opportunities. While these investments have contributed to economic growth in the region, they have also raised concerns about debt sustainability and potential political leverage. The recent debt restructuring negotiations involving several BRI recipient nations have highlighted the risks associated with over-reliance on Chinese financing.
The proposed strategy of forging inter-regional alliances is not without its challenges. Coordinating foreign policy among diverse nations with varying interests and priorities is inherently complex. The historical and cultural differences between Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America could also pose obstacles to building a cohesive and effective partnership. The potential for internal divisions within ASEAN itself – stemming from differing levels of economic development and political systems – could undermine the credibility of any collective action.
However, proponents argue that the potential benefits outweigh the risks. A unified front representing a significant portion of the developing world could wield considerable influence in international forums, such as the United Nations, the World Trade Organization, and the International Monetary Fund. This could allow these nations to advocate for reforms that address their specific needs and concerns, such as increased access to financing, fairer trade practices, and greater representation in global decision-making processes.
The idea of strengthening South-South cooperation – collaboration among developing countries – is not new. The Non-Aligned Movement, which emerged during the Cold War, sought to provide a platform for nations that did not want to align themselves with either the US or the Soviet Union. However, the current proposal goes beyond simply avoiding alignment; it envisions a proactive effort to shape the international order and promote a more equitable distribution of power.
Several recent developments suggest a growing appetite for this kind of strategic realignment. The increasing frequency of high-level meetings between ASEAN leaders and their counterparts in Africa and Latin America, coupled with a renewed focus on economic cooperation, indicates a willingness to explore new partnerships. The establishment of new regional trade agreements and investment frameworks could further solidify these ties.
The success of this initiative will depend on several key factors. First, ASEAN must demonstrate a greater degree of unity and cohesion in its foreign policy. Second, it must actively engage with potential partners in Africa and Latin America, identifying areas of common interest and building trust. Third, it must develop a clear and compelling vision for a more multipolar world order, one that is based on principles of mutual respect, non-interference, and shared prosperity.
The call for strategic inter-regional alliances represents a significant shift in thinking within Southeast Asia. It reflects a growing recognition that the traditional rules of the game are changing, and that smaller nations must adapt in order to survive and thrive in an increasingly competitive world. Whether this initiative will ultimately succeed remains to be seen, but the region is no longer content to simply be a bystander in the unfolding geopolitical drama.