The Super Bowl isn’t just a spectacle of athletic prowess and halftime entertainment; it’s increasingly becoming a testing ground for a new breed of financial traders. These aren’t traditional sports bettors, but participants in “prediction markets,” platforms where individuals can wager on the outcome of very specific events – and they’re employing increasingly sophisticated tactics to gain an edge.
The rise of these markets, allowing bets on everything from election results to the length of the national anthem, has spurred a wave of creativity among traders seeking “alpha,” finance slang for a competitive advantage. As reported on , the pursuit of this edge is leading some to extraordinary lengths.
Take Caden Booth, a 21-year-old from Cincinnati. Driven by the desire to profit from the Super Bowl, Booth traveled to the San Francisco Bay Area, armed with a stopwatch and a recording device typically used for birdwatching. His mission? To time rehearsals of “The Star-Spangled Banner” at Levi’s Stadium and accurately predict the duration of Charlie Puth’s performance. He successfully wagered on the length of the anthem, netting a substantial profit – though he declined to disclose the exact amount, citing online backlash from those who view his methods as unfair.
Booth’s story highlights a key characteristic of these prediction markets: the potential for niche, highly specific bets. In this case, nearly $2 million was wagered on the duration of the national anthem alone. This influx of money attracts individuals willing to go to considerable lengths to gather information that might give them an advantage.
But the pursuit of alpha isn’t limited to physical presence at rehearsals. Traders are also leveraging digital tools and techniques. Some are purchasing TV antennas to gain a fractional-second advantage during live events, while others are scouring social media for clues. One trader reportedly profited from a bet on Lady Gaga’s Super Bowl appearance after a muffled rehearsal clip circulated on TikTok.
Perhaps more surprisingly, some traders are finding valuable information hidden within the code of websites. Brandon Fean, a public school teacher and dedicated Kalshi trader, discovered an unreleased sales announcement for Travis Scott’s song “4X4” embedded in the HTML code of the artist’s website. This information allowed him to accurately predict the song would reach number one, resulting in a payout of over $10,000 on a $719 bet.
These tactics, while novel in the context of prediction markets, aren’t entirely new. Experts note parallels to high-frequency trading on Wall Street, where milliseconds can translate into significant profits, and even to historical practices like observing ship arrivals to gain insight into commodity imports. Chester Spatt, a finance professor at Carnegie Mellon University, emphasized that the incentive to invest in information that provides an edge is inherent in any market.
The growing popularity of prediction markets has also raised regulatory questions. While these platforms operate under federal derivatives laws, the line between legitimate trading and illegal manipulation can be blurry. Using non-public information, for example, is prohibited. Kalshi, one of the leading prediction market sites, states that its surveillance team actively monitors for suspicious activity.
The scale of activity surrounding this year’s Super Bowl is particularly noteworthy. Kalshi reported trading volume exceeding $161 million on its Seattle–New England market, more than six times the volume recorded last year. Polymarket and Kalshi together saw nearly $5 billion in wagers placed on a variety of Super Bowl-related outcomes. This surge in activity has drawn scrutiny from regulators and sparked debate about the legality and ethical implications of these platforms.
One account on Polymarket correctly predicted 17 out of 18 bets on the halftime show, while another bettor placed a $500,000 wager on Lady Gaga appearing, prompting online speculation about potential insider information. These instances underscore the need for careful oversight and a clear understanding of the rules governing these markets.
As prediction markets continue to evolve, it’s likely that traders will continue to devise innovative strategies to gain an edge. Whether it’s through meticulous timing, digital sleuthing, or simply a bit of luck, the pursuit of alpha is driving a new wave of financial creativity – and raising important questions about the future of betting and information in the digital age.
