Americans are poised to wager a record on Super Bowl LX, with projections exceeding $1.76 billion, according to the American Gaming Association. While the sheer volume of betting is noteworthy, a more concerning trend is emerging: the normalization of constant, high-frequency sports gambling, fueled in part by the rise of prediction markets and increasingly complex betting options.
The Super Bowl has long been the pinnacle of legal sports betting in the United States. However, the landscape has shifted dramatically since the Supreme Court overturned the federal ban on sports betting in , leading to legalization in 39 states and Washington D.C. As of . This expansion, coupled with the recent launch of legal sports betting in Missouri in December, is driving the record handle. But the growth isn’t solely attributable to traditional sportsbooks.
A significant portion of the increased action is coming from prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. These platforms, once targeted by the Biden administration, have been given a reprieve by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The CFTC, under chair Michael Selig, announced it would move away from a proposed rule that sought to prohibit political and sports-related contracts, opting instead to draft “clear rules” supporting “lawful innovation” in these markets. This shift reflects a broader trend toward loosening restrictions, echoing the Trump administration’s push for deregulation.
The rise of prediction markets is raising concerns about consumer confusion. An American Gaming Association study found that nearly 80% of sports contract traders mistakenly believe state regulators oversee these platforms, when in reality, they operate outside of state oversight. Approximately 28% of users on these platforms view their activity as an “investment” rather than gambling, compared to just 9% of traditional sportsbook bettors, and some even fund these bets from investment budgets.
The Super Bowl’s evolution in betting options also contributes to the growing problem. What began in with a single, quirky prop bet – whether Chicago Bears lineman William “Refrigerator” Perry would score a touchdown – has exploded into a vast array of possibilities. Today, sportsbooks offer thousands of props for every NFL, MLB, NBA, and NHL game, and a similar level of prop betting is available on college sports in roughly two dozen states. These include “same-game parlays,” which combine multiple bets into one, offering higher payouts but also a significantly increased risk of loss.
The house edge, traditionally around $5 per $100 wagered, is considerably greater for props and especially parlays. Former FanDuel head of product, Nik Bonaddio, noted that sportsbooks are collecting as much as $30 for every $100 wagered on parlays, a fact he believes most customers don’t understand. This dynamic, according to some industry insiders, is akin to “leading sheep to slaughter,” as described by Matthew Davidow, a former executive at Huddle, a company providing betting odds to sportsbooks.
The proliferation of microbets – bets on the outcome of each play or possession – further exacerbates the issue. Mark Nerenberg, former COO of microbetting vendor Simplebet (now acquired by DraftKings), explained that sportsbooks “shade” the odds on positive outcomes, effectively “taxing the casuals.” This constant stream of betting opportunities encourages more frequent and potentially reckless wagering.
The concerns extend beyond financial risk. NCAA President Charlie Baker supports a ban on player-specific props, citing the potential for corruption. Recent arrests of pitchers from the Cleveland Guardians for allegedly fixing microbets have prompted Ohio Governor Mike DeWine to call the prop betting experiment a “failure.” Senator Brian Schatz has indicated plans to propose legislation to heavily regulate prop betting.
The Super Bowl, once a singular event for sports betting, now represents a symptom of a larger problem: the relentless expansion of gambling opportunities and the increasingly sophisticated tactics used to encourage continuous wagering. As one industry analyst put it, “At some point, you break your customers by beating them too fast, and the experience is not fun.” The record $1.76 billion wagered on Super Bowl LX may be a sign of a booming industry, but it also raises serious questions about the long-term consequences of this rapidly evolving landscape.
