Super El Niño Could Supercharge Extreme Weather and Push Global Temperatures Past 1.5°C This Year

Experts are predicting a stronger version of the El Niño weather pattern this year, which could supercharge extreme weather events and push global temperature rises beyond the 1.5°C threshold above preindustrial levels.

Scientists and officials are closely monitoring conditions in the Pacific Ocean that could lead to a so-called “super El Niño,” potentially spiking temperatures and smashing global heat records in the coming year.

While it is still too early for a definitive forecast, early signs indicate the development of a powerful El Niño event, with some models suggesting it could become one of the strongest ever recorded.

Some forecasting models suggest that temperatures could go beyond a 2C increase for the first time in recorded history.

The Guardian

A Super El Niño, in contrast, happens when temperatures are more than 2 degrees C above the average.

CNN

The latest report added that there is a 25 percent chance of a “very strong” El Niño and a 50 percent chance of a “strong” El Niño, with Pacific Ocean temperatures rising to at least 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than average.

National Geographic

Some climate models show global temperatures briefly exceeding 2.0°C above preindustrial levels, driven by the potential super El Niño later…

Union of Concerned Scientists Blog

Early forecasts suggest this year may see the strongest El Niño in a decade—bringing with it more extreme weather.

National Geographic

During the last ‘super’ El Niño about a decade ago, 16 tropical cyclones formed in or passed through the central Pacific hurricane basin, including the first recorded instance of three Category 4 storms simultaneously across the central and eastern Pacific.

National Geographic

El Niño typically boosts Pacific hurricane activity while suppressing Atlantic activity by lowering vertical wind shear in the Pacific and increasing it in the Atlantic.

National Geographic

There are increasing indications that an El Niño is not only imminent — setting in by late summer or early fall — but that it could be a significant one, too.

CNN

Such extremely intense El Niños are rare.

CNN

To declare an El Niño, in general, ocean temperatures in a particular region of the tropical Pacific must clear 0.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term average.

CNN

The baddest kids in town El Niño and La Niña, names that translate to “the Boy” and “the Girl”, are recurring climate cycles in the tropical Pacific Ocean that happen every few years and can have profound effects on global weather patterns.

CNN

In the case of El Niño, the cycle can bring both flooding and drought to different parts of Africa, help pummel the U.S. West Coast with winter storms and lead to more heat extremes globally.

CNN

Some typically reliable computer models, like the European modeling suite, are projecting just such an outcome for this go-around.

CNN

People gather to watch the sunset at La Jolla’s Windansea Beach during a winter heat wave on January 31, in San Diego, California. A Super El Niño could result in record-breaking heat next winter, as well.

CNN

In fact, this might even qualify as a “Super El Niño,” which would significantly increase impacts felt around the world.

CNN

Scientists and officials are keeping a close eye on conditions brewing in the Pacific Ocean that could spike temperatures and smash global heat records in the year ahead.

The Guardian

It’s still too early to get a definitive picture, but there are signs that a so-called super El Niño could develop this year, supercharging extreme weather events around the world.

The Guardian

Some forecasts are suggesting it could become one of the strongest ever recorded.

The Guardian

Alongside heating from the human-caused climate crisis, this could put the world on track to once again temporarily breach the 1.5C average temperature rise over preindustrial levels – the critical climate threshold that experts have warned comes with a host of catastrophic consequences.

The Guardian

Some models show that temperature anomalies could even push past that point next year and go beyond a 2C increase for the first time in recorded history.

The Guardian

What would a super El Niño look like and what would it mean for the global climate? I’ll explain, after this week’s most important reads….

The Guardian