Welcome back to the Monday Tennis Briefing. This week, we examine why even the most dominant players can’t ignore the importance of the serve, a recent session focused on line calls on the ATP Tour, the return of a promising player, and some of the political currents within the sport.
Iga Świątek’s Serve: A Lesson from Alcaraz
Following Elena Rybakina’s decisive victory over Iga Świątek at the Australian Open, fueled by Rybakina’s powerful serve, Świątek faced further challenges in the Qatar Open quarterfinals, losing to Maria Sakkari 2-6, 6-4, 7-5. As Świątek and coach Wim Fissette refine her baseline aggression and patience, the ineffectiveness of her serve is becoming a significant limitation.
Even a generational talent like Świątek struggled, being broken five times across the second and third sets by Sakkari. Starting so many rallies from neutral or defensive positions puts immense pressure on her to win points in other ways, leading to more baseline errors as she attempts to earn easier wins. The inability of a serve to provide a “release valve” is proving costly.
A compelling comparison can be drawn to Carlos Alcaraz’s development over the past year. Before Alcaraz improved his serve, he was vulnerable to similar defeats – matches that were closely contested but ultimately lost due to a struggle to consistently hold serve. The variance in Świątek’s serve reliability against Sakkari was particularly noticeable. despite holding serve ten times, four were to love.
Świątek acknowledges the need for improvement and has even indicated a willingness to make significant changes, stating after her loss to Rybakina in Melbourne that she would continue to tweak her serve. She went so far as to suggest she might skip WTA 1000 events to focus on this aspect of her game – a pledge she followed through on by withdrawing from the Dubai Duty Free Championships this week.
“There’s some stuff on the serve that I want to change, and I already changed that in the pre-season, but then matches come and you don’t have that much time to think about this,” Świątek said in Melbourne. “You don’t want to think about these kind of details when you play. So then it comes back to the old patterns. So yeah, I’ll focus on that… I see Carlos, for example, changing his serve every year. For me, it’s one little thing takes a much longer time.”
Last week served as a reminder that Świątek needs to address this issue promptly. It leaves her closer in points terms to Rybakina, currently ranked No. 3, than to Aryna Sabalenka, the No. 1, who also overcame serve issues earlier in her career.
ATP Tour Consistency: The Best Holding Serve
Across three ATP tournaments – the Dallas Open, the Rotterdam Open, and the Argentina Open – a consistent pattern emerged: the top seeds prevailed. This is particularly important on a tour largely dominated by Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, highlighting the need for those below them to deliver when the top two are absent.
In Dallas, No. 1 seed Taylor Fritz and No. 2 seed Ben Shelton battled in the final. Both faced challenging matches en route to the championship. Fritz was two points from defeat in his quarterfinal against Sebastian Korda, while Shelton had to save a break point at 5-5 in the third set of his semifinal against defending champion Denis Shapovalov. Shelton ultimately prevailed, coming from a set down to win 3-6, 6-3, 7-5.
This victory marks Shelton’s fourth ATP title and makes him the first American man since Andy Roddick to win three or more titles above the ATP 250 level. His path to victory, however, has been characterized by high variance, suggesting a need for more consistent break points to reduce the reliance on winning crucial return points.
Shelton was the only No. 2 seed to win a title. Alex de Minaur defeated Félix Auger-Aliassime 6-3, 6-2 to win the Rotterdam Open, while Francisco Cerúndolo beat Luciano Darderi 6-4, 6-2 to win the Argentina Open.
A Promising Return: Zheng Qinwen
The Qatar Open offered encouraging signs for Zheng Qinwen, who was returning from an elbow injury. Her performance, reaching the last four, suggests she is regaining form. Zheng’s serve, sometimes a weapon and sometimes a liability, appeared smoother and more reliable, as evidenced by her 20 aces in a three-set win over Sofia Kenin.
“I don’t pray for winning matches. I just prayed for a normal elbow,” Zheng said after her win over Kenin. Her success in 2024, including the Australian Open final and Olympic gold medal, demonstrated her potential, and a return to that level would further elevate the WTA Tour.
Looking Ahead: February’s ATP Tour and Beyond
February’s ATP Tour schedule is expected to undergo significant changes with the planned introduction of a Masters 1000 event in Saudi Arabia from 2028. The ATP is currently working on “calendar optimization” and is expected to announce the schedule early next year.
The potential impact on the South American swing, including the Argentina Open and Rio de Janeiro Open, is a key concern, as the Saudi Arabian tournament will offer significantly higher prize money and could attract top players away from these events. ATP Tour chairman Andrea Gaudenzi’s recent visit to Buenos Aires underscores the importance of these considerations.
