Syria Under al-Sharaa: Assessing a Year of Stability & Challenges | War on the Rocks
- Damascus – More than a year after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024, Syria remains a nation in transition, grappling with fragile institutional advances overshadowed...
- The overthrow of Assad, after over fifty years of Baath party rule and thirteen years of war, initially raised hopes for a resolution to the brutal civil conflict.
- One of the most pressing issues facing the al-Sharaa government is establishing full sovereignty over Syrian territory.
Damascus – More than a year after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024, Syria remains a nation in transition, grappling with fragile institutional advances overshadowed by persistent security concerns and a massive humanitarian crisis. The government, led by President Ahmed al-Sharaa and emerging from the Islamist armed group Hayat Tahrir al-Cham (HTC), has sought to establish legitimacy and stability, but faces significant challenges on multiple fronts.
The overthrow of Assad, after over fifty years of Baath party rule and thirteen years of war, initially raised hopes for a resolution to the brutal civil conflict. Al-Sharaa, a former jihadist fighter, has attempted to project an image of pragmatism and a commitment to reconstruction. However, the transition has been marked by violence and communal tensions, raising fears among minority groups and complicating efforts to unify the country.
One of the most pressing issues facing the al-Sharaa government is establishing full sovereignty over Syrian territory. A significant portion of the country, roughly a quarter, remained under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) at the beginning of , including vital oil and gas fields. Throughout , negotiations facilitated by the United States aimed to integrate the SDF into a unified Syrian state, but fundamental disagreements over centralization versus federalization proved insurmountable.
In recent months, Damascus shifted to a more assertive approach, launching limited offensives against SDF positions. These actions, coupled with successful efforts to exploit divisions within the SDF – specifically, leveraging discontent among Arab fighters – have led to defections and weakened the SDF’s control. Simultaneously, the government has strengthened its relationship with the United States, securing cooperation in dismantling the SDF’s control over files related to Islamic State prisoners.
The situation with the Kurdish forces is particularly sensitive. While a ceasefire has been achieved on the northeastern front, a growing sense of abandonment is taking hold among the Kurds, as the United States appears to be prioritizing its partnership with al-Sharaa. This shift in U.S. Policy could further destabilize the region and potentially lead to renewed conflict.
Beyond the SDF, the al-Sharaa government has also had to address internal security challenges. Clashes between Bedouin communities and Druze fighters in the city of Sweida in required the intervention of Syrian government forces, resulting in nearly 100 deaths. This incident highlighted the fragility of security in certain regions and the potential for localized conflicts to escalate.
The transitional phase, governed by a constitutional declaration adopted in , concentrates power in the executive branch, granting the president significant authority over judicial and legislative appointments without substantial checks and balances. This concentration of power, while justified by the government as necessary for stability, has raised concerns about potential abuses and the erosion of democratic principles.
Identity-based killings have also marred the transition. Reports indicate massacres of Alawite and Druze civilians in and carried out by government and allied forces, fueling fears of further sectarian violence. These incidents underscore the deep-seated communal tensions that continue to plague Syria.
Economically, Syria faces a daunting recovery process. The country’s infrastructure has been devastated by years of war, and the economy is in dire need of investment. Saudi Arabia has emerged as a key backer of the al-Sharaa government, pledging $6.4 billion in investments in across various sectors. The lifting of some foreign sanctions could also provide a much-needed boost to the economy, but the extent of recovery remains uncertain.
The humanitarian situation remains critical. Years of conflict have displaced millions of Syrians, and access to basic necessities such as food, water, and healthcare remains limited for many. The ongoing instability and security concerns further exacerbate the humanitarian crisis, hindering efforts to provide assistance to those in need. Human Rights Watch reports that the years of conflict have exacerbated gender inequalities, exposing women and girls to increased violence, displacement, and discriminatory laws.
Looking ahead, the success of the al-Sharaa government will depend on its ability to address these multifaceted challenges. Establishing lasting security, fostering inclusive governance, and rebuilding the economy are essential for achieving sustainable peace and stability in Syria. The international community’s continued support, coupled with a commitment to addressing the root causes of the conflict, will be crucial in helping Syria navigate this complex transition.