Less than three months after the fall of the Assad regime, Syria is showing cautious signs of economic recovery. However, the country faces a monumental task as large parts of it have been devastated by years of conflict. Thea Hilhorst, a professor of humanitarian studies, warns that the urgency to revive the economy is paramount. She cautions, “And countries that have just come out of a war are vulnerable to end up in war again.”

Benjamin Bean, an economist at the Think Tank Karam Shaar, predicts a significant housing crisis as refugees return home. He states, “Syria is waiting for a huge house crisis in the short term when refugees return home.”

The Syrian economy, which collapsed during the war, is beginning to show signs of recovery. Western products, which had disappeared from stores, are slowly reappearing, and inflation, which had made goods priceless, is starting to ease. Benjamin Fève, an economist, notes, “The Economist of Think Tank Karam Shaar estimates that 90 percent of Syrians previously lived in poverty. But that percentage is already lower.”

One surprising aspect of Syria’s recovery is the performance of the new government, which stems from HTS, a group labeled as terrorist by America and Europe. Hilhorst observes, “But everyone almost concludes with astonishment how well they are doing.” The government has reintegrated old officials and has avoided large-scale violence, which has been a critical factor in maintaining stability.

Despite these positive signs, international sanctions against Syria remain a significant obstacle. Hilhorst points out, “They paralyze the entire economy. If they are not lifted you can hardly talk about reconstruction.”

Syrian entrepreneurs are beginning to notice a shift in the economic tide. A video from Nieuwsuur captures the optimism among entrepreneurs, with one stating, “Prices go down every day.” However, many crucial sectors, such as energy and housing, remain severely affected. The power grid needs to be almost entirely restored, and cities like Homs and Aleppo have been completely destroyed.

Before the civil war started in 2011, Syria was not an economic superpower but was self-sufficient. The country produced around 380,000 barrels of oil per day, generating $3.2 billion annually. However, due to the war, oil production dropped to 90,000 barrels per day, and the gross domestic product plummeted from $67.5 billion to $9 billion. Inflation soared from 6% to 140%. The World Bank estimates that $250 to $400 billion is needed to restore the country.

Fève sees a role for international organizations like the World Bank, the UN, and the IMF in financing the reconstruction. He also highlights the potential contributions of the EU and the U.S., stating, “They have the most money.” Hilhorst hopes that the Netherlands will also contribute, noting that many Syrians who fled to the Netherlands want to return. She emphasizes, “But then there must be something.”

Fève also sees a role for the Gulf States and Turkey in the reconstruction. The Gulf States, he suggests, may provide funds in exchange for influence in Syria. Turkey, on the other hand, could contribute through companies that might secure contracts for rebuilding Syria.

Fève estimates that full recovery could take a few decades, depending on factors such as international involvement, safety issues, and the effectiveness of reconstruction. He notes, “But in general, it applies to post-conflict scenarios such as in Syria that full recovery will take a few decades.”

In addition to economic reconstruction, Hilhorst emphasizes the need for immediate humanitarian aid. With the dismantling of the American aid organization USAID under the new Trump government, the situation in Syrian refugee camps has become dire. She reports, “There are terribly harrowing situations in Syrian refugee camps. People there no longer get water every day, but twice a week.”

As Syria navigates its path to recovery, the international community’s support will be crucial. The lessons from Syria’s reconstruction can offer valuable insights for other post-conflict regions, including those in the U.S. that have faced similar challenges, such as post-Katrina New Orleans and post-Hurricane Maria Puerto Rico. The U.S. can learn from Syria’s experiences in rebuilding infrastructure, addressing humanitarian needs, and fostering economic stability.