“What’s the worst that could happen if Trump wins?” Photo: Evan Vucci, AP.
The next one could be Black Tuesday, indeed. Mexico and the world are considering with nervousness and a strong dose of uncertainty the possibility that Donald Trump will return to the White House. Experts differ on the extent of the damage this could cause to our country, but they all agree that it is bad news.
Given that there is little or nothing we can do in the next 48 hours, except worry, I suggest turning to a personal strategy, one of family origin I suppose, to ease the wait. In essence it involves assuming the worst case scenario: if you are on a plane that is experiencing turbulence, assuming it could crash in the next few minutes, understanding that many have been through that and making peace with it. The same with a medical diagnosis or investing in a business (if you are not willing to bear the consequences of failure, it is better not to try). It sounds a bit dramatic, but almost without exception the results are favorable.
What’s the worst that could happen if Trump wins? Because, from the outset, we should understand that there are fewer catastrophic scenarios even if the orange candidate wins. Let’s remember that we are already in that position (2016-2020). An initial feel to the pressure, some occasional storms, but basically nothing particularly drastic. Most of the threats made by that unlikely candidate did not become reality after he reached the White House. Analysts assume Trump will be more damaging in a second term, but no one knows by how much. Let’s assume that it will be at an intermediate point in a band gradient that goes between what it was four years ago and the worst of its versions published these months. If it is the first, or something close to the first, I will understand that there will be pressure, but in the end we will overcome it.
However, the other extreme is also possible. A destructive, irrational, vindictive Trump with the strength to defeat the many interest factors, some very powerful, that favor integration with Mexico. In economic matters, the most worrying thing is the tariff war and, ultimately, the end of the free trade agreement as we know it. There are variations here too and that doesn’t automatically mean the end is near. Trump has talked about different tariff quotas, sometimes up to 100% for any product entering US soil, but he has also made distinctions by region. If discriminatory sanctions were implemented, Mexico could still be a good relocation option. For example, a tariff of 20% for Mexicans, compared to 50% for Europeans and 80% for Chinese, would keep us on competitive ground for foreign investment. It is even possible that, in the extreme case of a tariff war, where the world would impose retaliatory punishment on American products, for a Texan industrialist, setting up a factory across the border or associated with Mexican businessmen could be way to export to the rest of the planet.
Of particular concern is that Trump will launch an attack against the trade agreement with Mexico, which will be reviewed in 2026. Although it is unlikely, let’s imagine for a moment life without economic integration. Like in the seventies or, well, how Brazil or Colombia live today. And to be honest, when we observe the evolution of countries similar to ours in recent decades, we can conclude that it is not the end of the world to imagine a future without that integration. Many aspects of our productive and commercial logic would need to be rethought, but in the long term it would be achieved. I don’t mean to say that is desirable. Proximity to the market with the highest purchasing power on the planet is a huge advantage, but that doesn’t mean we can’t live without it in an extreme case. After all, this is the situation in which the “rest of the world” lives.
The issue of immigration is also an explosive one. Until it isn’t. Firstly, because as we have already seen in Italy, where the current president came to power thanks to a campaign against foreign labour, in practice she has folded her hands in the face of the economic reality that demands that in some way or’ each other. And, moreover, Trump’s hostile attitude towards migration during his first term reduced the flow of flows from Latin America, which increased again with the return of the Democrats. Some to others.
Is there a risk that it will carry out the threat of considering cartels as terrorist organizations and, therefore, open up the possibility of interventionist criminal operations? A missile hits a ranch in Badiraguato? A secret commando kidnaps a boss in Tamaulipas? In the worst case, a gimicky show by Trump to keep his word as an alpha male. In one of those, the attention and resources devoted to the issue finally allow the US authorities to get really involved in the fight against arms trafficking and financial flow control the organized crime economy.
In short, many harmful things can happen as a result of what happens this Tuesday. But none of them will lead to unfavorable disasters or Greek tragedies (and by the way, Greece itself shows that no hardship is eternal: after a terrible crisis in the last decade, it has been growing for three years at rates than the rest of Europe envy today).
That said, we will be able to survive waiting for what happens next Tuesday. And, in one of those, the news could be much better, for the good of all. @jorgzepedap
Jorge Zepeda Patterson
He is a journalist and author.
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