The 2025 NFL season concluded with a surprising MVP result, as Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford edged out New England Patriots second-year sensation Drake Maye by a single first-place vote. The tight race, detailed by CBS Sports, underscored a season where multiple contenders remained viable until the very end, mirroring the unpredictable nature of a Kentucky Derby finish.
Maye entered Week 18 as the heavy favorite, with betting odds around -400, seemingly destined to claim the award. However, Stafford’s strong performance in the regular season finale – 281 passing yards and three touchdowns in a 37-20 victory over the Arizona Cardinals – proved decisive. Crucially, voters also appeared to credit Stafford for his impressive Week 16 showing against the Seattle Seahawks, where he threw for 457 yards and three touchdowns in a narrow overtime loss.
The outcome was particularly noteworthy given that neither Stafford nor Maye were considered frontrunners at the start of the season. Maye, entering his second year after a 4-13 rookie campaign with the Patriots, had odds as high as +6000. Stafford, meanwhile, wasn’t even on the betting board due to concerns about lingering injuries. He ultimately emerged as a contender roughly four weeks into the season, with odds improving to +2200 by mid-schedule.
This unexpected result naturally leads to the question: are there any viable longshots in the current 2026 NFL MVP odds worth considering? The Stafford story suggests that a compelling narrative, coupled with strong on-field performance, can disrupt even the most established favorites.
According to DraftKings, as of February 13, 2026, Josh Allen currently leads the field at +600, followed by Lamar Jackson (+750) and Drake Maye (+850). Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert are tied at +1000, with Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott close behind at +1100. Matthew Stafford’s odds sit at +1400, reflecting his recent victory but acknowledging the challenges of repeating.
While the favorites are compelling, exploring potential value in the longshot territory could prove rewarding. One intriguing possibility is Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins, currently listed at +20000. If Cousins were to return to the Vikings and reclaim the starting job from J.J. McCarthy, a scenario that would require a strong performance and a return to contention for the NFC North title, he could generate significant MVP buzz. Cousins’ popularity with the NFL media and a compelling comeback narrative could further bolster his chances.
However, a key observation, as noted by CBS Sports, is that the MVP award has become increasingly quarterback-centric. Despite record-breaking seasons from running backs like Christian McCaffrey of the San Francisco 49ers and Saquon Barkley of the Philadelphia Eagles in recent years, neither received a single MVP vote. This suggests that non-quarterbacks face a significant hurdle in winning the award, with Offensive Player of the Year now appearing to be their ceiling.
Looking at specific players with potentially good equity, both Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes, currently at +1000, present interesting options. Mahomes, recovering from a torn ACL that ended his 2025 season, could quickly re-establish himself as a frontrunner if he returns healthy and leads the Kansas City Chiefs back into contention. Burrow’s late-season resurgence in 2025, after battling a toe injury, demonstrated the potential of the Cincinnati Bengals when he’s at his best. Both quarterbacks possess the talent and media appeal to contend for the award.
Another player to watch is Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence, currently at +2000. Lawrence enjoyed a breakout season in 2025, throwing for 4,007 yards and 29 touchdowns as the Jaguars reached the postseason under new head coach Liam Cohen. Maintaining that level of production, while limiting turnovers, could position him as a serious contender, particularly if he can capitalize on a narrative of overcoming previous skepticism.
Finally, a more speculative longshot pick is New York Giants quarterback Daniel Dart, at +4500, as suggested by SportsLine lead NFL analyst R.J. White. Dart’s potential for growth under new coach John Harbaugh, combined with the Giants’ efforts to rebuild through free agency and the 2026 NFL Draft, could create a scenario where he emerges as a surprise MVP candidate.
The 2026 NFL MVP race is already taking shape, but as the story of Matthew Stafford demonstrated, the path to the award is rarely predictable. While established stars like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson remain the favorites, keeping an eye on potential longshots with compelling narratives and the opportunity for significant improvement could prove to be a wise strategy for those looking to place an early bet.
