The 2026 NASCAR season is officially underway, and all eyes are now turning to the 68th running of the Daytona 500 on . While Ryan Preece claimed victory in the Cook Out Clash on , the “Great American Race” represents a different level of prestige, and competition. Experts are already weighing in, and a clear picture is beginning to emerge regarding potential contenders and smart betting strategies.
Analysts Phil Bobbitt and Steve Greco have released their 2026 NASCAR betting preview, emphasizing a shift in the sport’s dynamics. The offseason brought significant changes, including a lawsuit involving 23XI Racing and a redesigned Chevrolet body. However, the most impactful alterations are the revisions to the playoff format, designed to reward consistency and strategic decision-making.
The new format, which places greater emphasis on points accumulation and awards 55 points for each win (up from 40), is expected to favor drivers who can consistently deliver strong finishes. This contrasts with the previous system, which often led to manufactured drama and a focus on simply securing a win at all costs. Bobbitt and Greco believe this change will create a more organic and competitive championship chase.
Looking at the outright winner market, Kyle Larson currently leads the field, followed closely by William Byron. Bobbitt and Greco’s model indicates Larson is 1.5 positions clear of the competition, citing his dominance on 1.5-mile tracks – which comprise a significant portion of the schedule. Larson excelled in this area in 2025, boasting the best average finish, average running position, and most laps led on these track types.
However, Byron is not to be underestimated. The analysts point to his exceptional efficiency and consistency, noting his leading average running position and percentage of laps run inside the top-15 in 2025. The new playoff format, they argue, plays directly into Byron’s strengths, rewarding steady performance over aggressive, high-risk strategies.
Beyond Larson and Byron, the analysts highlight the potential of Chase Elliott, who remains a reliable points accumulator, and Alex Bowman, who is undervalued by the public. They suggest a bet on Hendrick Motorsports as the championship-winning team, given the strength of their driver lineup.
The dominance of Team Penske, particularly Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano, is also acknowledged. According to odds from BetMGM Sportsbook, Blaney and Logano are currently tied for the shortest odds to win the Daytona 500, reflecting Ford’s recent success at restrictor-plate tracks. However, the analysts caution that while Ford has demonstrated speed, converting that speed into wins has been a challenge.
For those looking for a long-shot bet, Chris Buescher is identified as a potential dark horse. Bobbitt and Greco believe Buescher is being undervalued in the market and possesses the consistency to secure a win, particularly given the continued improvements within his team.
The analysts also suggest a bet on Christopher Bell to be the top Toyota driver, citing his strong performance in 2025 and a noticeable gap between him and other Toyota drivers like Denny Hamlin. Hamlin, while a perennial contender, is facing challenges due to an offseason shoulder injury and personal tragedy, potentially impacting his performance.
The 2026 NASCAR season promises to be a compelling one, marked by significant changes and a renewed emphasis on strategic racing. With the Daytona 500 looming, the experts’ predictions offer valuable insights for both casual fans and seasoned bettors. The combination of a revamped playoff format, strong driver lineups, and evolving manufacturer dynamics sets the stage for a season filled with excitement and unpredictable outcomes.
As Bobbitt and Greco conclude, patience and a disciplined approach will be key to success in 2026. The long season rewards those who can adapt quickly and capitalize on opportunities, making it a potentially lucrative year for those who can navigate the complexities of the sport.