East Lansing, Mich. – No. 15 Michigan State will host Ohio State on Sunday afternoon in a pivotal Big Ten matchup, with tipoff scheduled for 1 p.m. ET at the Breslin Center. The game will be televised on CBS and streamed on Paramount+, CBS Sports App, and CBS Sports.com.
Michigan State (21-5, 11-4 Big Ten) comes into the contest having won its most recent game, an 82-59 victory over UCLA on Tuesday. Ohio State (17-9, 9-6 Big Ten) is also riding a win, having defeated Wisconsin 86-69 on February 17. The Buckeyes have been notably inconsistent, alternating wins and losses over their last nine games.
Historically, Michigan State holds a significant advantage in the series with 44 wins to Ohio State’s 23, but the programs have split their last eight meetings. The Spartans won the last encounter between the two teams, 69-62, a year ago.
Heading into Sunday’s game, Michigan State is a 10.5-point favorite, according to the latest odds. The over/under for total points scored is set at 147.5. Michigan State is at -617 on the money line.
The SportsLine Projection Model has simulated this game 10,000 times and predicts the total will go Over (147.5 points). The model notes that Michigan State has consistently surpassed the total in its recent games, with the total points exceeding the set number in each of their last six contests. The Spartans boast a highly efficient offense, led by Jeremy Fears Jr., who ranks nationally in assists (9.3). As a team, Michigan State is among the top 10 in assists, while also maintaining a low turnover rate.
Ohio State’s offense is performing significantly better than its defense, ranking in the top 40 nationally in offensive rating but outside the top 200 in defensive rating. The model forecasts that the Buckeyes will have the game’s two top scorers, but Michigan State counters with eight players projected to score more than five points, double the number for Ohio State. The model’s simulations indicate a 59.6% probability of surpassing the 147.5-point total.
The SportsLine Projection Model also suggests a strong likelihood of one side covering the spread, a pick that is available exclusively at SportsLine. The model’s simulations have been highly accurate, going 11-1 on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season and 13-7 on top-rated side picks.
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