Seoul-Tokyo Relationship: Current State & ‌future Developments – A Summary Based on the Provided Text

based ‍on the provided text, here’s a description of the ‍current Seoul-Tokyo relationship and potential ⁣future developments:

Current State:

* ⁢ Historically Strained, Now Improving: While acknowledging past tensions, the relationship is currently experiencing a thaw. President Lee Jae Myung’s choice of⁣ Tokyo as his‌ first ​overseas destination​ (before washington D.C.) signals a deliberate effort ⁢to improve ties. The meeting​ with Prime ​Minister Ishiba was described as “collegial,” building on the cooperative⁤ approach of the previous administration.
* Driven by ⁤Geopolitical Shifts: The primary driver of this ‍advancement isn’t necessarily a resolution of historical⁤ grievances, but⁣ rather the intensifying competition ⁤between the US and China. Both Seoul and⁢ Tokyo are ⁣recognizing the need for closer collaboration in this ⁤new ⁤geopolitical landscape.
* Differing Strategic Priorities, ​but converging Interests: The‌ text acknowledges inherent differences in ‌strategic priorities⁣ due to geography⁤ (South korea’s proximity to China vs. Japan’s). Though, these ⁤differences​ are being overshadowed by⁢ shared⁤ concerns ⁣about China’s ⁣growing influence and the broader US-China rivalry.
* Evolving South Korean Outlook on China: South Korea’s stance on China ​is becoming more cautious. This is fueled by:
‍ ​ *‌ China’s reaction to the THAAD deployment.
⁤ * Growing​ concerns among younger generations regarding cultural appropriation and pollution.
*‍ South Korea’s focus on developing air and sea⁢ capabilities, which will likely provoke ⁤a response from Beijing.

Future Developments (Foreseen):

*⁢ Closer Collaboration: ‌ The author ⁣anticipates continued and even closer collaboration between Seoul and tokyo ⁤”at least in ‌the foreseeable future.” This is ‌directly ​linked to the escalating US-China competition.
* Strategic Alignment: The‌ world is increasingly‌ dividing ‌into ⁤blocs led⁤ by the US and China, and ​both South‍ Korea and Japan are likely to align more closely⁢ with the ⁤US,⁢ despite existing sensitivities.
* Continued Cooperation Despite ‍Challenges: ​The​ author acknowledges that sensitive issues and domestic political uncertainties will ⁣persist, but these are ‍not expected to derail the trend towards ⁤greater cooperation.

U.S. Influence in East Asia ‌& Related‌ questions -‌ Summarized‍ from the Text

Strengthening U.S. Influence:

The⁤ author suggests ⁢focusing on strategic geography.‍ rather‍ of solely concentrating⁤ on the Korean Peninsula and Taiwan (the traditional “flashpoints”),⁤ the U.S. should recognize the wider arc of competition with⁤ China and ​exploit China’s vulnerabilities:

* Beyond Traditional Flashpoints: Recognize the importance of China’s Southern and⁤ Western Theater Commands.
* Economic Security: Focus on areas critical ⁢to⁢ China’s economic security, especially the Strait of Malacca. This is the focus of the author’s ongoing research.

Impact ⁣of U.S. Tariffs:

* Less Pronounced Than Expected: The author believes the impact of tariffs has been less significant than‍ anticipated.
* Immigration‌ Policy More​ Impactful: ⁤Changes in U.S. immigration policy (detention of South Korean ⁣workers, increased‍ H-1B visa fees) are seen as having​ a larger impact,‌ potentially making the ‍U.S. ‌less attractive ⁢to⁤ Asian businesses and talent.
* Forcing Regional Choices: ⁤ The intensifying US-China rivalry‍ will ultimately force countries in the region to choose⁣ sides.

Current Research:

The author is completing a book manuscript titled The ‍Geographical Pivot ⁢of Empires: Explaining ‍Where Rising Powers Expand,which develops⁤ a theory about how great‍ powers determine their geographical orientation and tests it‌ against historical examples.

In essence,⁤ the author ​paints a ⁣picture of a ‍rapidly changing East Asian landscape where geopolitical competition is ‌reshaping alliances and forcing countries ⁣to reassess their strategic priorities. The US,to maintain influence,needs to adopt a broader,geographically ​informed strategy that exploits China’s vulnerabilities ⁤beyond the traditional hotspots.