Dhaka – Bangladesh is signalling a clear shift in its foreign policy under the newly elected government of Tarique Rahman, prioritizing national interests as it recalibrates relationships with key global powers. The move has prompted China, India, and the United States to reassess their respective approaches to the South Asian nation.
Rahman’s victory in the recent general election, held on , followed a period of strained relations with India, particularly after the July 2024 uprising and the subsequent flight of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to India. The Awami League, Hasina’s party, was barred from contesting the election. This backdrop has fueled grievances among many Bangladeshis who perceive Delhi as having backed an increasingly authoritarian regime, alongside longstanding complaints regarding border killings, water disputes, and trade restrictions.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India was quick to congratulate Rahman on his “decisive victory,” pledging India’s support for a “democratic, progressive and inclusive” Bangladesh and expressing a desire to strengthen the “multifaceted relationship” between the two countries. However, the tone, while forward-looking, was described as “careful,” reflecting the complexities of the evolving dynamic.
The invitation extended to Prime Minister Modi to attend Rahman’s swearing-in ceremony, though ultimately declined due to prior commitments, is seen as a significant gesture of outreach. India will be represented by Om Birla, the speaker of the lower house of parliament, indicating a continued commitment to maintaining open communication channels. Muhammad Yunus, head of Bangladesh’s interim government, has invited leaders and senior officials from thirteen countries, including India, China, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Malaysia, Brunei, Sri Lanka, Nepal, the Maldives and Bhutan.
Rahman has publicly stated that Bangladesh’s foreign policy will be guided by its own national interests, a principle he has termed “Bangladesh First.” This approach aims to strike a balance in relations with neighbouring countries, including India, China, and Pakistan, according to reports. Analysts suggest this signals a desire to chart an independent course, distancing Bangladesh from being overly reliant on any single power.
The shift comes after a period of deteriorating ties with India, marked by suspended visa services, halted cross-border train and bus routes, and reduced flight frequency between Dhaka and Delhi. Delhi now faces the challenge of securing its interests – particularly concerning insurgency and extremism – while navigating a potentially more assertive Bangladeshi foreign policy and addressing domestic political sensitivities surrounding the relationship.
A reset in relations is considered possible, but will require both restraint and reciprocity. Analysts believe the BNP, with its political experience, represents India’s “safest bet” moving forward. However, the success of this reset hinges on how Rahman governs and whether he can effectively stabilize India-Bangladesh ties.
The recalibration extends beyond India. China and the United States are also adjusting their strategies in light of the new administration. The specific nature of these adjustments remains to be seen, but the “Bangladesh First” policy suggests a willingness to engage with all major powers on mutually beneficial terms.
The invitation list for Rahman’s swearing-in ceremony underscores Bangladesh’s desire for broader international engagement, extending beyond its immediate neighbours to include key players in the Middle East and Southeast Asia. This signals an intention to diversify its diplomatic and economic partnerships.
The situation is further complicated by the legacy of mistrust stemming from the previous administration. Many Bangladeshis hold Delhi accountable for supporting Hasina’s government, which they view as increasingly authoritarian. Addressing these grievances will be crucial for building a more sustainable and positive relationship with India.
The coming months will be critical in determining the trajectory of Bangladesh’s foreign policy and its relationships with key global powers. Rahman’s ability to navigate these complex dynamics will be a defining feature of his leadership and will have significant implications for the region’s geopolitical landscape.
Modi conveyed his “best wishes and support” to Rahman in a social media post on , expressing hope for fulfilling the aspirations of the Bangladeshi people.
