Tensions between the great powers in Asia have reached a new stage, and fear in the South China Sea (1/5) |

(British Economist magazine 14 September 2024)

New battles over reefs and shoals will test the credibility of the United States.

On August 31, a Chinese Coast Guard ship collided with the Philippine Coast Guard’s largest patrol boat, punching a hole in its side.

This was an attempt to drop the Teresa Magbanua class patrol boat that the Philippines has anchored in Sabina Reef since April this year. No one was injured.

But the incident suggests that a new pattern of conflict and conflict is emerging in the South China Sea, particularly around the Spratlys.

Sources said that when US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan met with China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, near Beijing in August, China announced that the Philippines had been warned that it would not accept a stay.

This incident suggests that the conflict in the South China Sea has entered a new phase.

There is considerable uncertainty as to whether China and the United States will be able to safely prevent a full-scale conflict.

China has been constantly rewriting the map

A major redrawing of the South China Sea map began in 2012 when Xi Jinping came to power.

Over the next three years, China built seven bases in the Spratly Islands, on reefs claimed by four countries: Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam, three of which also include major airports (Map reference).

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These bases are now home to Chinese military troops, ships and aircraft.

Previously, the most elaborate structures, whether Chinese or not, were small airfields built on certain islands.

China has repeatedly made vague claims that it has rights to the part of the South China Sea bounded by the so-called nine-dash line (ie, most of the South China Sea).

This dotted line drawn on the map sometimes moves. A 10th line can be added near Taiwan.

But despite China’s tall claims, the current situation has been uncertain in the past five years.

On any given day, there may be one or two Chinese Coast Guard vessels and several “maritime militia” vessels (usually large fishing vessels) surrounding the disputed reefs and shoals that dot South China Sea Dozens of ships are moored there.

Until recently, they only had a limited mandate.

Most commercial shipping was not affected, including container ships that use the sea lanes, one of the busiest in the world.

The China Coast Guard’s activities were nominally limited to energy exploration and enforcement of fishing activities in the area.

However, enforcement was lukewarm.

China bans fishing in the South China Sea every summer (in the name of helping stocks recover), but the rule has never been seriously enforced.

The US Navy resumed “freedom of navigation” operations through the Spratly Islands in 2015 and continues to do so.

The purpose is to challenge China’s claims in this area.

However, sentiment has been on the wane, and China’s resistance has largely become routine.

The South China Sea has often been surprisingly calm for the epicenter of conflict between major powers.