Thai Election: Stocks to Watch as Bhumjaithai Party Gains Momentum

Bangkok – Thailand’s stock market is poised for gains following a period of political uncertainty, with analysts pointing to increasing stability surrounding the Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) as a key driver. The SET Index is currently expected to trade within a range of 1,300 to 1,360 points, buoyed by a global risk-on environment and easing monetary conditions that favor emerging market fund inflows.

The optimism comes after a prolonged period of de-rating for Thai equities. Post-election clarity, particularly regarding the potential for a more stable government led or significantly influenced by the BJT, is expected to limit downside risk. Recent opinion polls indicate rising popularity for the BJT, bolstering these expectations.

Southeast Asian equity markets generally experienced a positive January, extending the rally seen throughout 2025, fueled by optimism surrounding artificial intelligence and resilient exports. Thailand and Singapore led gains among regional indices. However, Indonesia lagged behind due to late-month selling pressure triggered by downgrade risks, capital outflows, and concerns regarding market transparency.

Global market volatility briefly flared up earlier this month when former US President Donald Trump threatened a 10% tariff on imports from eight European countries related to his pursuit of acquiring Greenland. European retaliatory measures worth €93 billion were proposed, but market sentiment improved after Trump addressed the World Economic Forum in Davos, ruling out military action and outlining a security framework agreement with NATO for the Arctic island. This de-escalation, coupled with strong US third-quarter 2025 GDP growth of 4.4% – the highest in two years – provided further support to markets.

Despite the global backdrop, the Thai market’s performance is increasingly tied to domestic political developments. The upcoming election, scheduled for tomorrow with over 53 million eligible voters, is seen as pivotal. While the People’s Party (PP) is anticipated to emerge as the leading party, mirroring its success in the 2023 general election, the BJT’s trajectory has been closely watched.

Analysts suggest the BJT’s initial momentum has waned somewhat as the campaign nears its conclusion. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s attempts to bolster the party’s popularity through nationalist rhetoric, specifically referencing Thai-Cambodian border tensions, have been largely ineffective. In contrast, the PP has managed to consolidate support with a consistent “change” message.

The exposure of alleged scandals involving the Social Security Fund board, brought to light by Rukchanok “Ice” Srinok and her team, alongside perceived blunders by the Election Commission, have further propelled the PP’s momentum. However, the PP currently lacks the surge of public sentiment needed to secure a landslide victory or more than 250 seats.

Looking ahead, investors are focusing on fourth-quarter earnings reports, key economic data releases, geopolitical risks, and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook. Maybank Securities Thailand recommends an overweight position on US and Chinese stocks, while also anticipating accumulation in Vietnam around the 1,800-point level.

Within Thailand, analysts are identifying sectors likely to benefit from a BJT-led coalition. The financial, consumer, and construction sectors are highlighted as potential outperformers. Investors are advised to consider companies with low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios – specifically those below 10 – and consistent dividend yields exceeding 5% over the past three years. This suggests a focus on value stocks with a track record of returning capital to shareholders.

However, potential risks remain. Escalating tensions between Thailand and Cambodia, coupled with potential resistance from conservative elements to a PP-led coalition, pose critical challenges. The outcome of the election and the subsequent coalition negotiations will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the Thai stock market and broader economic outlook.

The final stage of the election campaign sees a contest primarily among four major players: the People’s Party (PP), Pheu Thai, Bhumjaithai (BJT), and the Democrats. The ability of these parties to form a stable and effective government will be paramount in shaping investor confidence and driving economic growth.