Thai Inventory Market Sees 30% YoY Revenue Surge in 2Q24 Amid Authorities Restructuring and Constructive Sector Efficiency

Income in 2Q24 will improve by 50% YoY and 11% QoQ General efficiency is 4% higher than consensus, with 39% of the businesses we research reporting higher than anticipated efficiency. This led to a reasonably optimistic image, whereas one other 33% got here out as anticipated and 28% dissatisfied.

Outcomes for the electronics and F&B teams had been good, whereas the hospital contracting, actual property and normal development teams had been beneath expectations.

As proven in Determine 3, international performs akin to electronics and F&B had been the 2 sectors that carried out properly in 2Q24, with positive factors in key electronics shares akin to DELTA* coming in 42% higher than market expectations* and TFG * considerably greater than the slowdown expectations. and rejection of business financial institution mortgage functions.

The fast institution of a brand new authorities ought to assist restrict GDP draw back The financial outlook will rely largely on authorities spending and financial stimulus measures.

Ms Paethongtarn Shinawatra has been appointed as the brand new Prime Minister Due to this fact, a brand new authorities needs to be established shortly and may assist restrict the draw back of Thai GDP Our economists will use the precise 2Q24 GDP figures revealed at the moment to contemplate o’ earlier than adjusting the GDP estimate for 2024 quickly (our estimate is 2.8% for the time being) The financial outlook in 2H24 will rely primarily on two components: Fee of the federal government funds and financial stimulus measures that come out. It’s extra doubtless that Plaid Thai Pheu’s populist insurance policies will attain extra folks than ever earlier than. This may have a optimistic influence on Thailand’s consumption momentum.

Trying extra optimistic on provincial consumption and funding based mostly teams, and in addition trying optimistic on F&B shares.

Over the previous few weeks, earnings estimates have been revised up and down in equal measure, leaving our common EPS estimate for 2024 just about unchanged. We estimate that the SET Index goal on the finish of 2024 is 1,463.
Primarily based on a PE mud of 14.8x it’s 0.5SD beneath the long run common, which is predicated on our view that the brand new govt.
Measures to stimulate consumption will be carried out in additional acquainted methods. This may have a optimistic influence on center to decrease class shoppers. We’re due to this fact optimistic on the outlook for shares based mostly on provincial consumption, akin to CPAXT*, DOHOME* and GLOBAL* We’re additionally extra optimistic on non-bank finance shares if decrease finish client buying energy improves high inventory on this group. In the meantime We nonetheless like F&B shares the place market analysts have raised their earnings estimates, akin to CBG* and CPF*.