Thailand Election: Bhumjaithai Party Leads, Anutin Poised for PM Role

Thailand’s ruling Bhumjaithai Party is on course for a victory in a snap general election, giving Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul the upper hand in forming a new coalition government.

With around 90 percent of polling stations reporting results, Anutin’s party is leading in 194 of the 500 seats in the lower house of parliament, according to partial results released by the country’s election commission. This represents a significant increase from the 71 seats the party held in the 2023 election.

The results suggest that Bhumjaithai will likely fall short of securing an outright majority in the lower chamber. The progressive People’s Party is leading in 115 seats, and the populist Pheu Thai Party, backed by the billionaire former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was jailed last year, is leading in 77 seats, the results showed.

“Bhumjaithai’s victory today is a victory for all Thais, whether you voted for Bhumjaithai Party or not,” Anutin told a press briefing. “We have to do the utmost to serve the Thai people to our full ability.”

The unexpected strength of the Bhumjaithai Party marks a shift in Thailand’s political landscape, traditionally dominated by pro-democracy reformers and, more recently, parties linked to the military. The results represent a notable win for the establishment, which has faced challenges in recent elections.

People’s Party leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut appeared to concede defeat as the results came in, telling reporters, “We acknowledge that we did not come first.” He added, “We stand by our principle of respecting the party that finishes first and its right to form the government.”

Ruengpanyawut stated that his party would not join a Bhumjaithai-led government and would also not form a competing coalition. “If Bhumjaithai can form a government, then we have to be the opposition,” he told a press conference.

Bhumjaithai, seen as the preferred choice of the royalist-military establishment, centred its campaign on economic stimulus and national security, tapping into nationalist fervour stoked by deadly border clashes with neighbouring Cambodia. Anutin stepped in as prime minister last September, after his predecessor, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, was forced out of office for an ethics violation.

The snap election was called in December after Anutin dissolved the National Assembly, threatened with a no-confidence vote. The timing of the election, coinciding with heightened tensions with Cambodia, is believed by some analysts to have been strategically advantageous for the conservative leader.

The rival People’s Party, which many had expected to win a plurality of seats, had promised to curb the influence of the military and the courts, as well as break up economic monopolies. Pheu Thai campaigned on economic revival and populist pledges like cash handouts.

The election also included a referendum on a new constitution. Early counts showed voters backing constitutional change by a margin of nearly two to one. Thailand has had 20 constitutions since the end of its absolute monarchy in 1932, with most changes following military coups.

If voters back the drafting of a new national charter, the new government and lawmakers can start the amendment process in parliament, with two more referendums required to adopt a new constitution. Napon Jatusripitak of the Bangkok-based Thailand Future think tank said, “I believe that the party that wins in the next election will have an outsized influence on the direction of constitutional reform, whether we move away from the junta-drafted constitution or not.”

The outcome of the election and the potential for constitutional reform could have significant implications for Thailand’s political stability and its relationship with the military and the monarchy. The country has experienced cycles of political upheaval and military intervention in recent decades, and the results of this election suggest a potential shift towards a more conservative and establishment-friendly government.

Coalition talks will be crucial in determining the final composition of the government. While Bhumjaithai is in a strong position to lead, it will likely need to forge alliances with other parties to secure a majority. Potential partners include Pheu Thai and the Democrat Party, although power struggles within these parties could complicate negotiations.

The election results also come at a time of economic challenges for Thailand. The country is facing slowing growth, rising debt levels, and increasing competition from regional neighbours. Anutin has pledged to address these challenges through economic stimulus measures and by promoting Thailand as a regional hub for investment and tourism.

The international community will be watching closely to see how the new government navigates these challenges and how it balances the competing interests of different political factions. The stability of Thailand is important not only for the country itself but also for the wider Southeast Asian region.