FRIDAY PM: Neon’s The Monkey is poised to have the second highest opening weekend of all-time for the indie distributor, with projections between $12 million and $14 million. This follows a strong Friday performance that is expected to exceed $5 million across 3,200 theaters, securing the film a second-place ranking. As is typical for R-rated horror movies, much of the business is anticipated to occur during the latter hours of the night.

With a robust social media presence of 154.5 million across TikTok, YouTube, X, Facebook, and Instagram, The Monkey has an online reach that is 16% above the horror genre norms, according to RelishMix. The film is gaining traction in a sea of Neon promotional materials, which are part of a broader strategy to compete for Oscar recognition.

Positive word of mouth is driving excitement for The Monkey, with horror fans eagerly anticipating the latest from writer/director Oz Perkins. Following the success of Neon’s previous horror film, Longlegs, fans are sharing their enthusiasm, exclaiming, “Oz Perkins loves to scare us… I’m so ready for this after Longlegs,” and, “Neon are really stepping it up these past few years.” Many are drawing comparisons to other horror hits, sharing, “this movie is essentially Final Destination meets Stephen King,” and, “This looks like it’s gonna out-Final Destination Final Destination.”

The trailer for The Monkey, which scored record traffic for an indie horror movie, has stoked great excitement. Fans were particularly drawn to Elijah Wood’s cameos and the image of the lady running with the stroller on fire.

Disney/Marvel Studios’ Captain America: Brave New World, showing at 4,105 theaters, is seeing a second Friday of $7.5 million, leading to a take in the mid to high $20 million range. Among Disney MCU movies, The Marvels owns the worst second weekend drop at -78% off a B CinemaScore. Brave New World was rated B-. At $29 million, that’s a -67% decline. The running ten-day total by the end of Sunday at the high end resides at $142 million.

Third place goes to StudioCanal/Sony’s Paddington in Peru with a second Friday of $1.4 million, a 3-day total around $6 million, and a 53% decline for a running cumulative total of $24.7 million by Sunday.

Fourth is DreamWorks Animation/Universal’s Dog Man at 3,179 sites with a fourth Friday of $1.2 million, a 3-day total of $5.2 million (-47%), and a running total by Sunday of $78 million. The film hit digital platforms on Tuesday.

Fifth is China’s animated sequel Ne zha 2 at 800 sites with a second Friday of $850,000, a 3-day total of $3 million (-60%), and a 10-day total of $14.8 million.

Lionsgate’s faith-based film Unbreakable Boy, showing at 1,687 sites, is seeing $850,000 on Friday and a 3-day total of $2.2 million.

FRIDAY AM: There have been a lot of horror films in the last month and a half, but Neon’s The Monkey is on its way to posting the best opening for a horror movie year-to-date with $12 million to $14 million this weekend after $1.9 million in previews. That number for the Oz Perkins-directed movie includes advance screenings.

For Neon, which shot to box office heights with Perkins’ previous film Longlegs with $3 million in previews and a $22.4 million opening, The Monkey’s previews are the second best for the distributor. The Monkey’s previews in total are higher than the $1.7 million clocked by New Line’s critically acclaimed and audience favorite Companion, which settled for a $9.3 million opening.

Quorum reports that The Monkey climbed to higher awareness than Longlegs before opening on what was a traditional campaign. However, “interest is seven points lower for The Monkey, which points to a mid-teen opening.” The 18-34 age group showed up at 63% per Comscore/Screen Engine’s PostTrak starting at 7 PM last night when previews began. P&A spend for The Monkey was around $10 million, the same as Longlegs. RT audience score on The Monkey is 73% to a solid critical score of 80% certified fresh.

More excitement for Neon this weekend beyond box office: Their Cannes Film Festival-winning movie Aor is also up for Best Feature at the Film Independent Spirit awards tomorrow and Best SAG ensemble on Sunday. Should that Sean Baker movie score those top prizes, it’s just more momentum after DGA and PGA wins toward Oscar’s Best Picture.

Among regular ranked movies, Disney/Marvel Studios’ Captain America: Brave New World led Thursday with an estimated $3.2 million, a 5% increase from Wednesday, ending its first week with $113 million at 4,105 theaters. The Anthony Mackie movie is expected to lead the box office again in its second frame with a $30 million+ take.

Lionsgate has the Kingdom Story movie The Unbreakable Boy, which is 43% with critics and a mid-1000 theater break. It’s expected to file in the single digits.

Sony/StudioCanal’s Paddington in Peru did $737,000 yesterday at 3,890 theaters, a 2% decline, for a first week of $18.7 million.

Universal/DreamWorks Animation’s Dog Man is third for the week with $15.8 million at 3,335 locations, after $668,000 yesterday and a running cume through week 3 of $72.8 million.

Fourth for the week belongs to Screen Gems/Spyglass’ Heart Eyes with $12.3 million second week at 3,102 theaters, $388,000 estimated yesterday and running total of $23.9 million.

CMC Chinese billion-plus global grossing animated sequel Ne zha 2 ends its first week with $11.8 million at 660 locations after a $592,000 Thursday.