The Rise of Middle Powers: Navigating Global Geopolitics in a Divided World

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The Middle Power Delusion: Why Neutrality Is No Longer an Option in a Divided World

By Ahmed Hassan

In a world reshaped by great-power rivalry, economic warfare, and regional conflicts, the idea that middle powers can remain neutral or indifferent to global alignments is increasingly a dangerous illusion. A new wave of analysis from leading foreign policy journals—including Foreign Affairs, the Council on Foreign Relations, and the East Asia Forum—argues that middle powers like Canada, Japan, and those in the Middle East must now actively choose sides or risk being pushed aside by the strategic ambitions of the United States, China, and regional actors.

The core thesis, articulated in Foreign Affairs’ May/June 2026 issue, is that "not choosing is not an option." Middle powers—defined as states with significant influence but insufficient power to dictate global outcomes—face a stark reality: the unipolar world of American dominance has eroded, and the emerging multipolar order demands clear strategic positioning. The magazine’s contributors warn that neutrality in this context is not a viable default but a strategic failure, one that could leave smaller states vulnerable to coercion, economic exclusion, or geopolitical irrelevance.

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The Illusion of Neutrality

The concept of middle powers as "honest brokers" or mediators has long been a cornerstone of their foreign policy identity. However, as Foreign Affairs’ analysis highlights, this approach is no longer sustainable in an era of great-power competition, economic decoupling, and regional conflicts—particularly in the Middle East and East Asia.

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"Middle powers are not just bystanders in a great-power game; they are often the prizes." —Foreign Affairs, May/June 2026

The magazine cites Japan’s recent security realignment as a case study. Tokyo’s decision to deepen military ties with the U.S. And Australia—while maintaining economic engagement with China—demonstrates the impossibility of true neutrality. Similarly, Canada’s former Prime Minister Mark Carney’s push for a "middle-power coalition" has been met with skepticism, as critics argue that such groupings lack the leverage to counterbalance great-power moves (AFR, March 2026).

The Middle East, too, is a battleground where neutrality is collapsing. Iran’s regional ambitions, the Israel-Hamas war, and the shifting alliances in the Gulf have forced smaller states—such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and even Turkey—to make explicit choices. The ORF Middle East argues that "middle powers can no longer afford to be ‘spheres by default’"—meaning they must proactively shape their alliances rather than wait to be drawn into great-power blocs.

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The Cost of Indecision: Economic and Security Risks

The economic dimensions of this shift are stark. Foreign Affairs’ feature "How to Fight an Economic War" outlines how middle powers are increasingly caught in crossfire. For example:

• Supply chain disruptions between the U.S. And China have forced middle powers to pick sides in tech and trade.
• Sanctions and secondary boycotts (e.g., against Iran or Russia) have penalized neutral states that fail to comply.
• Currency and financial exclusion (e.g., SWIFT bans, dollar devaluation risks) threaten states that do not align with dominant blocs.

The East Asia Forum reinforces this, noting that "middle powers that hedge too much risk being left with the worst of both worlds"—neither fully integrated into Western-led institutions nor trusted by China.

Security risks compound the challenge. The Council on Foreign Relations’ report "Building in the Rupture: The World’s New Alignments" warns that middle powers face hybrid threats—cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and coercive diplomacy—when they fail to commit to clear alliances. For instance:

• Japan’s security commitment to the U.S. Was tested after North Korea’s 2025 missile escalations, proving that even allies cannot assume protection without reciprocal investment.
• Turkey’s balancing act between NATO and Russia has left it exposed to economic retaliation during crises.
• Middle Eastern states that avoid explicit alignment (e.g., Iraq, Lebanon) have seen their sovereignty eroded by proxy conflicts.

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The Middle Power Playbook: How to Stay Relevant

So what is the alternative? The analysis suggests three pragmatic strategies for middle powers:

1. Strategic Alignment, Not Blind Loyalty

   • States must selectively deepen ties with one bloc while maintaining critical engagement with rivals. Japan’s approach—military alignment with the U.S. But economic ties with China—is a model, though not without risks.
   • The East Asia Forum recommends "asymmetric interdependence"—leveraging unique strengths (e.g., Canada’s financial sector, South Korea’s tech) to negotiate better terms.

2. Coalition-Building Beyond the West

   • The ORF Middle East argues that middle powers should form issue-specific alliances (e.g., on climate, trade, or cybersecurity) rather than relying solely on Western institutions.
   • Examples include the Middle Powers Dialogue (a forum for states like Norway, Singapore, and Chile) and ASEAN’s centrality in Indo-Pacific diplomacy.

3. Resilience Against Coercion

   • Economic diversification (e.g., reducing reliance on a single currency or trade partner) and legal sovereignty (challenging unilateral sanctions) are critical.
   • Foreign Affairs cites Switzerland’s neutrality tools—financial secrecy, diplomatic mediation, and energy independence—as a playbook for smaller states.

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The Middle East: A Test Case for Middle Powers

The region exemplifies the dangers of neutrality. Since the Israel-Hamas war escalated in 2023, smaller states have faced three impossible choices:

1. Align with the U.S./Israel and risk regional isolation or economic backlash.
2. Side with Iran or Hamas and face Western sanctions or military pressure.
3. Remain neutral and risk being ignored in peace talks or targeted by all sides.

The ORF Middle East’s report "How Middle Powers Can Stay Off the Great Power Politics Menu" argues that states like Jordan, Oman, and Qatar have survived by:

• Positioning as mediators (e.g., Oman’s role in U.S.-Iran indirect talks).
• Diversifying alliances (e.g., Qatar’s ties to both the Gulf Cooperation Council and Turkey).
• Investing in resilience (e.g., Jordan’s energy deals with Egypt and Israel).

However, the analysis warns that this window is closing. As great powers double down on their rivalries, the cost of neutrality rises, and the rewards for clear alignment grow.

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The Future: No More Free Rides

The overarching message from these sources is clear: the era of middle powers as passive observers is over. Whether in East Asia, Europe, or the Middle East, states must now actively shape their strategic environment—or risk becoming pawns in a game they did not choose to play.

For policymakers in middle powers, the question is no longer "Can we stay neutral?" but "What side do we want to be on—and how do we get there without losing our autonomy?"

As Foreign Affairs concludes:

"The delusion of middle power neutrality is not just a strategic mistake—it is a recipe for irrelevance."

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Sources:

• Foreign Affairs, May/June 2026 – "The Middle Power Delusion: Not Choosing Is Not an Option"
• Council on Foreign Relations – "Building in the Rupture: The World’s New Alignments"
• East Asia Forum – "Middle Powers Take Center Stage"
• ORF Middle East – "How Middle Powers Can Stay Off the Great Power Politics Menu"
• Australian Financial Review – "Carney’s Middle Power Delusions Clash With Middle East Reality" (March 2026)