Thousands of American Historic Landmarks Face Severe Wildfire Threat

Study Reveals Half of U.S. Historic Sites Face Wildfire Threat

A groundbreaking analysis published in Nature Scientific Reports found that 50.3% of the 100,117 sites on the National Register of Historic Places are exposed to wildfires, with 3,446 classified as high-risk. The research, led by the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS) at the University of California, Santa Barbara, marks the first national-scale assessment of how climate-driven fires endanger cultural heritage.

“These places anchor community identity, collective memory, and national heritage,” said Caitlin Fong, the study’s corresponding author. “Unlike homes, they cannot simply be rebuilt—and in many cases, once lost, they are gone forever.”

Cultural Heritage at Risk as Climate Change Reshapes Fire Zones

The study mapped wildfire burn probabilities against every mappable historic site, revealing stark regional disparities. Western states bear the brunt, but emerging hotspots include Oklahoma, Arkansas, and the southeastern coast. Historic buildings and districts—90% of listed resources—face heightened vulnerability due to their intrinsic link between physical structure and cultural value.

Nationally significant sites like the Grand Canyon Lodge and Will Rogers Ranch House are disproportionately exposed. Climate change is expanding hazard zones, threatening sites in previously low-risk areas. “These losses are not isolated incidents but early warnings of a systemic crisis,” said coauthor Benjamin Halpern, a UCSB professor.

Loss of Iconic Sites Sparks Urgent Call for Protection

The destruction of the Will Rogers Ranch House during the Palisades Fire in January 2025 and the Grand Canyon Lodge in the Dragon Bravo wildfire six months later underscores the study’s warnings. Rebuilding the ranch house is projected to cost $5.1 million, with efforts focused on preserving evacuated historic elements. The lodge, which survived a 1932 fire, now faces an uncertain future.

“Communities stand to lose more than structures—they lose their sense of place, which is deeply tied to identity and history,” Halpern said. The study highlights a glaring gap: current wildfire planning frameworks largely exclude cultural heritage, with California’s CAL FIRE program being a rare exception.

Wildfire Plans Overlook Cultural Heritage, Study Finds

“Historic places must compete for attention within broader all-hazards plans not designed for heritage preservation,” Fong said. The research outlines mitigation strategies, including vegetation management, fire-resistant materials, and concealed suppression systems aligned with preservation standards. An open-source dataset provides agencies with a tool to prioritize protections.

“The connection people have to places is a profound, underappreciated dimension of what communities lose,” Halpern said. The study’s authors argue that wildfire risk assessments have historically focused on homes, infrastructure, and ecosystems, neglecting cultural and psychological impacts.

Researchers Warn of Systemic Crisis as Climate Fires Intensify

With climate change accelerating wildfire frequency and intensity, the team urges proactive planning. “By identifying where and what is most at risk, this study provides a foundation for safeguarding the places that anchor community identity and national heritage before they are permanently lost,” said lead author Mona Farnisa.