Tom Barrack says US could strike Iran this weekend

The United States could launch military strikes against Iran as early as this weekend, according to Tom Barrack, an American official, serving as ambassador to Ankara and special envoy to Syria. Speaking in an interview with influencer Mario Nawfal, Barrack stated that a weekend operation was entirely possible while noting that Washington remains at the negotiating table with Tehran.

Diplomatic Impasse and Military Posture

Talks between Washington and Tehran remain deadlocked nearly eight months after the outbreak of the conflict, which began with joint strikes by Israel and the United States against Iran. U.S. Donald Trump has stated on multiple occasions that he will soon make a decision regarding Iran, weighing what he terms the soft approach or the hard approach. During a campaign event, Trump warned that the U.S. could unleash an epic fury if no agreement is reached with Tehran.

Analysts point to a series of concrete indicators suggesting a possible escalation. Suzanne Maloney, a researcher at the Brookings Institution, points to the reinforcement of American military assets in the region, safety warnings issued to U.S. citizens, and the high alert status of Israeli forces as signs of impending action. Jason Campbell, a researcher at the Middle East Institute in Washington, also notes signals pointing toward a resumption of strikes, though both analysts argue that renewed air campaigns cannot fundamentally alter the strategic calculations of the Iranian regime.

Divergent Political Timelines in Washington and Jerusalem

The timing of any potential military action intersects with crucial electoral schedules in both the United States and Israel. President Trump previously announced that the U.S. would not strike Iran before the American midterm elections on November 3, a timeline reinforced by the war’s domestic unpopularity and its impact on energy prices. However, Suzanne Maloney estimates that strikes become highly probable shortly after the November 3 vote.

In Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu faces legislative elections. Campaigning in Dimona on October 21, Netanyahu asserted that overthrowing the Iranian regime is the only way to eliminate the threat from Tehran once and for all, adding that he has instructed the army, the Mossad, and security services accordingly. Political opponents have accused Netanyahu of attempting to reignite the conflict to influence the vote, allegations that the Prime Minister has rejected. Meanwhile, Israel’s Chief of Staff, Eyal Zamir, stated on October 22 that the military sees no immediate operational necessity to strike Iran prior to the elections.

Unresolved Questions and Future Operations

Uncertainty remains regarding the exact scope and timing of any upcoming military operations, as well as the capacity of further airstrikes to achieve strategic objectives. While conventional Iranian military installations have suffered heavy degradation during the initial months of the conflict, according to Brookings Institution researcher Suzanne Maloney, extensive damage to regional American bases complicates any large-scale ground deployment. It remains unclear whether the diplomatic deadlock will break before the U.S. midterm elections or if military engagements will escalate immediately afterward.