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US Considers Supplying Ukraine with Long-Range Missiles Capable of Reaching Moscow
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A potential shift in US strategy could dramatically escalate the conflict, offering Ukraine the ability to strike deep within Russian territory.This move, while debated, signals a growing willingness to challenge Moscow’s perceived safe zones.
What Happened?
The US president has reportedly discussed the possibility of providing Ukraine with advanced, long-range missile systems capable of hitting targets within Russia, including Moscow. This represents a significant departure from previous US policy, which has largely focused on supplying weapons for defensive purposes and avoiding direct escalation. While the decision isn’t final, the consideration itself marks a notable change in approach.
The Weapon in Question: ATACMS and Beyond
The primary weapon under discussion is believed to be the ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System),a surface-to-surface missile with a range of up to 300 kilometers (186 miles). Currently, the US has resisted sending ATACMS to Ukraine, citing concerns about provoking Russia. However, the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive and Russia’s continued attacks on Ukrainian cities are reportedly driving a reassessment of this position. Othre potential systems, offering even greater range, are also being evaluated.
Why This Matters: A Game Changer for Ukraine?
Allowing ukraine to strike targets within Russia would fundamentally alter the dynamics of the war. Currently, Ukraine is largely limited to defending its own territory and conducting limited cross-border raids. The ability to hit Moscow and other strategic locations could:
- Deter further Russian aggression: The threat of retaliation could force Russia to reconsider its military strategy.
- Disrupt Russian logistics: Long-range missiles could target supply lines, command centers, and airfields within Russia.
- Boost Ukrainian morale: Demonstrating the ability to strike back at Russia would be a significant psychological victory for Ukraine.
However, this also carries significant risks, as detailed below.
The Risks of Escalation
Providing Ukraine with the capability to strike Moscow is a highly escalatory move. Russia has repeatedly warned that it would view such actions as a direct threat and could respond with a significant escalation of its own, potentially including:
- Increased attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure: Russia could intensify its bombardment of Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure.
- Direct attacks on US assets: While unlikely, Russia could target US military assets or personnel in the region.
- The use of more destructive weapons: There is a concern that Russia could resort to more powerful weapons, including tactical nuclear weapons, even though this remains a low probability.
The US administration is carefully weighing these risks against the potential benefits to Ukraine.
Timeline and Current Status
Discussions regarding the provision of long-range missiles began in recent weeks, coinciding with Ukraine’s counteroffensive. As of November 28, 2023, no final decision has been made. The situation is fluid and subject to change based on developments on the battlefield and the broader geopolitical context.Key factors influencing the decision include:
| Factor | Influence |
|---|---|
| Ukrainian counteroffensive Progress | Successes strengthen the case for providing more advanced weaponry. |
