Top 100 NFL MVP Candidates 2025
- Dak Prescott has been incredible this season, and his numbers are undeniably impressive.
- I recognize this ranking is lower than the consensus but make no mistake -- Stafford had an incredible season.
- Stafford's turnover rate was 1.6%, seventh best and just barely ahead of Maye (eighth) and Prescott (ninth).
the NFL’s Most Valuable Player award will vrey likely come down to Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford and Patriots quarterback Drake Maye. Even if you agree that thay were the two most valuable players in the league this season — spoiler alert, I do not! — ther are several interesting questions beyond those two. While the NFL’s MVP almost has to be a quarterback,how far down the list of candidates do we have to go until we get to a non-QB? How far do we have to go until we get to a center? A safety? Or a running back?
Because the NFL MVP award itself rarely answers these questions,I take it upon myself to submit a 100-player ballot. there were a lot of players who played well this season. So why not rank them? This is my fourth annual attempt at doing just that.
To evaluate players, I rely on a variety of sources – statistics and quantitative metrics, awards such as the All-Pro team, and feedback from NFL front office personnel and colleagues at ESPN. One of my favorite parts about football is that player evaluation is far from a settled science. Every season, including this one, someone I trust in the league will tell me I have a player ranked far too high and another person I have similar trust in will tell me that same player is ranked far too low.
In this exercise, we are measuring player value relative to average at respective positions. So we will almost certainly have quarterbacks at the very top — it is the highest-leverage position – but also cannot have more than 16 on the list. This also means we will have more edge rushers than centers, for example. and this is an entirely descriptive exercise about only the 2025 season.
So let’s dive into the 100-player ballot, starting with my real pick for MVP.
Maye might not be the NFL MVP when it is announced Feb. 5 …but he should be. And while it was a close race throughout the season, I don’t think it was really that close at the end.Maye finished as the NFL’s QBR leader by a healthy margin, with his 77.2 being well ahead of that of the next-highest finisher (Jordan Love).“`html
Dak Prescott has been incredible this season, and his numbers are undeniably impressive. He leads the league in QBR (77.9), ranks second in EPA per dropback (0.24), and is third in adjusted net yards per attempt (8.1). He’s also thrown for 36 touchdowns against only six interceptions. Prescott has benefited from playing with excellent receivers in george Pickens and CeeDee Lamb. While that’s valid, Stafford’s top two receivers are elite, too. Ultimately, Prescott should not be punished for the Cowboys’ decision to trade away Micah Parsons or their general defensive failures. Regardless of Dallas’ place in the standings, the numbers point toward Prescott being the second-most valuable player this season.
I recognize this ranking is lower than the consensus but make no mistake — Stafford had an incredible season. He finished fourth in QBR, second in adjusted net yards per attempt, first in air yards per attempt, third in yards per dropback and third in points above average. The Rams’ offense ranked second in EPA per play, third in EPA per dropback and second in success rate on dropbacks. Los Angeles led the league in EPA per drive (0.83), too. The Rams were pass-leaning, with their plus-2% pass rate over expectation (per NFL Next Gen Stats) being sixth highest.
Stafford’s turnover rate was 1.6%, seventh best and just barely ahead of Maye (eighth) and Prescott (ninth). While Stafford had a good offensive line, that he was sacked only 3.7% of the time is a testament mostly to him and one area where he was clearly superior to Maye.
But Stafford’s accuracy numbers were not on par with those of the othre contenders — he ranked 13th in completion percentage over expected and 20th in off-target rate — and his lack of running ability was a negative, though those numbers are mostly baked into the EPA-based metrics. So while Stafford should be in the mix for MVP, I have a hard time getting him to No. 1 based on the combination of those numbers and further context they do not consider.
The Rams had the NFL’s highest success rate on designed runs, and Stafford enjoyed the highest rate of play-action (36%) of any quarterback. He used designed rollouts on 12% of dropbacks (second most) and faced eight-man boxes on 11% of dropbacks (third). L.A. ranked fifth in pass block win rate (69%). He played with two exceptional receivers in Puka Nacua and
This was a down year for Mahomes, but he was still one of NFL’s the most valuable players given the importance of the position he plays and his relative efficiency. Mahomes finished the season ranked sixth in QBR and fifth in points above average despite missing the last three games after tearing his ACL and LCL on Dec. 14.
Mahomes’ accuracy number was an uninspiring minus-3% relative to expectation, third worst among QBR-qualifying quarterbacks this season. His scrambling was an asset,though,as he contributed 23.6 expected points added on scramble plays.
mahomes also had to overcome his receivers group. Kansas City’s team receiver score — based on player tracking metrics that evaluate each receiver’s ability to get open, make the catch and generate YAC relative to expectations on each play — for its wide receivers and tight ends was a 32 on a scale of 0-99, the third-worst mark in the league. Mahomes suffered a 7.6% drop rate, also third worst.He also faced light boxes 76% of the time, the fourth-highest rate among quarterbacks.
While Mahomes’ numbers weren’t what we’re used to seeing from him, he was still one of the most valuable quarterbacks in the league.
Herbert was not done any favors this season, as the Chargers’ offensive line was one of the weakest units in the NFL. los Angeles lost left tackle Rashawn Slater to injury before the season, and right tackle Joe alt went down after just six games played. The result? A 53.9% team pass block
Davante Adams. And Nacua’s plus-168 YAC over expected, per NFL Next Gen Stats, ranked second among wide receivers behind only that of George pickens.
Nacua’s best argument over Smith-Njigba stems from player tracking metrics. In ESPN’s receiver scores, Nacua ranked first with a 97 on a 0-99 scale. That was the third-best WR season in overall score in the metric’s history (since 2017), behind A.J.Brown in 2024 and Antonio Brown in 2017.
Nacua makes his presence felt as a blocker too. While we don’t have perfect metrics to capture that part of his game, he recorded 73 run block wins this season, second most among wide receivers.
While there’s reasonable debate between Nacua and Smith-Njigba for WR1, these were clearly the two most valuable non-quarterbacks of the 2025 season.
The Browns had only five wins this season, but Garrett certainly held up more than his fair share of the bargain with his record 23 sacks.
His pass-rushing numbers were actually just behind those of a couple of other players on a down-to-down basis. Garrett’s pass rush win rate of 20.6% ranked fifth best among all players, and he finished third in total pass rush wins behind Micah Parsons and Will Anderson Jr. Garrett also finished fourth in sacks created — a metric that credits the first player to beat their blocker on a play that ultimately ended in a sack – with 15.0. But Garrett was either double-teamed or chipped on 39.5% of his pass rushes this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats, more than any other edge rusher.
Plus, the 23 sacks were undeniable, so Garrett deserves his top-10 spot.
If it weren’t for Garrett setting the single-season sack record, Anderson easily could have been the favorite for Defensive Player of the Year.He had a little more than half the sacks Garrett did (12), but Anderson’s 62 pass-rush wins was second in the NFL behind only Parsons. And Anderson did all that while ranking eighth in run stop win rate at edge (28.2%), too.