Toyota South Africa Motors (TSAM) is navigating a challenging economic landscape while maintaining its position as the country’s leading vehicle seller. Despite broader concerns about market turmoil, the company anticipates South Africa could achieve 630,000 new vehicle sales this year, a significant increase from the 596,818 units recorded in , which itself represented a 15.7% jump from .
The outlook, shared during TSAM’s 2026 state of the motor industry (Somi) briefing, comes as the South African automotive sector grapples with economic headwinds and increasing competition from cheaper Chinese imports. Andrew Kirby, Toyota’s president and CEO, expressed confidence that the market will continue to grow, potentially exceeding 700,000 units – a level not seen since .
Kirby acknowledged the concerns voiced by other industry players but highlighted positive trends, particularly the impact of lower interest rates on sales in . However, he cautioned that growth in the sub-B-, C- and D-segments was largely driven by increased sales of entry-level models, potentially creating an “artificial growth in volume.”
TSAM itself experienced a strong , achieving its highest sales volume since , with a total of 148,124 units sold. This performance underscores Toyota’s continued dominance in the South African market, a position it has held for the past 46 consecutive years.
However, the company is acutely aware of the growing threat posed by Chinese automotive manufacturers. Kirby stated that while Toyota welcomes competition, the industry as a whole must adapt and innovate to maintain its competitiveness. This adaptation is crucial not just for Toyota, but for the entire South African manufacturing industry, according to Kirby.
The need for adaptation extends beyond simply competing on price. Leon Theron, Senior Vice President for Sales and Marketing at Toyota South Africa, recently emphasized the importance of maintaining market share, noting Toyota’s February performance as the number one vehicle seller with a total of 11,743 units, representing a 24.5% share of the new car market. Year-to-date, this equates to a 26.7% share.
Beyond sales figures, TSAM is also focused on introducing new models to the South African market. The company recently unveiled a range of new vehicles at the Somi briefing, signaling its commitment to innovation and meeting evolving consumer demands. However, the company also lamented the broader trend of deindustrialization within South Africa, suggesting a need for policy interventions to support the local automotive industry.
A key concern raised by TSAM leadership is the need for South Africa to actively participate in the new energy vehicle (NEV) market. The company warns that inaction in this area could jeopardize the future of the country’s motoring industry. Without a proactive approach to NEVs, South Africa risks losing its position as a significant automotive manufacturing hub.
The company’s projections for – 630,000 units – represent a cautious optimism. While acknowledging the challenges, TSAM believes the South African market is moving in the right direction. Kirby expressed his belief that the market “should be a lot bigger than we currently are,” indicating a potential for further growth in the coming years. In October, Toyota delivered 12,440 units, securing a 27.4% slice of the new vehicle market, demonstrating continued momentum despite broader economic pressures.
The success of Toyota in South Africa, and the broader health of the automotive industry, will likely be closely watched as an indicator of the country’s economic resilience and its ability to attract foreign investment in a rapidly changing global landscape. The interplay between economic policy, consumer demand, and competitive pressures will be critical in determining the future trajectory of the sector.
