Toys Future of Tech
- Here's a breakdown of the key themes and predictions discussed in the provided text:
- * the article begins by noting that the rate of progress in computing power (historically doubling every 16 months - Moore's Law) has slowed considerably.
- * The rise of smartphones created new potential for VR, leading to Google Cardboard and renewed interest from major companies (Oculus, HTC).
Here’s a breakdown of the key themes and predictions discussed in the provided text:
1. Moore’s Law & Semiconductor Limits:
* the article begins by noting that the rate of progress in computing power (historically doubling every 16 months – Moore’s Law) has slowed considerably.
* Despite the massive size and importance of the semiconductor industry, essential physics is now a limiting factor.
2. virtual Reality (VR): A Rollercoaster
* VR has experienced multiple “deaths” and revivals.
* Early VR found a foothold through video game consoles.
* The rise of smartphones created new potential for VR, leading to Google Cardboard and renewed interest from major companies (Oculus, HTC).
* the VR “bubble” burst around the time Meta heavily invested in the metaverse,and Meta is now downplaying VR.
* Though, simulation (the underlying technology of VR) remains critically important in various fields.
3. Augmented Reality (AR): From dead End to “Next Big Thing”
* AR was initially considered a failure, exemplified by the Google Glass debacle.
* Microsoft’s HoloLens revived interest.
* Now, AR is being heavily pursued by Meta, Apple, and Google, and is predicted to potentially replace smartphones as the dominant technology for capturing attention.
4. Predictive Accuracy (and Inaccuracy):
* The author admits to “mixed results” with their past predictions.
* Missed: Augmented Reality (despite its early origins).
* Bullseye: The author correctly predicted that people raised with interactive toys like Furby would grow up expecting a world that is constantly listening and responding to them (foreshadowing the rise of voice assistants and always-on devices).
In essence, the text is a reflection on technological predictions, the cyclical nature of hype, and the enduring power of simulation technologies, even when specific implementations (like VR) falter. It also highlights the growing importance of AR and the impact of early experiences with technology on future expectations.