Trump 2.0 & Latin America: Cooperation or Coercion?
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Latin America Navigates Shifting Global Order Under Trump’s Second Term
Latin American nations are charting their own political courses amidst growing global uncertainties, often viewed as peripheral by European observers. Alessandro Guida, a professor of Inter-American relations at the University of Naples “L’Orientale,” shared his insights on the region’s strategies.
Trump Management’s Approach: Continuity or Change?
Guida suggests the second Trump administration’s approach to Latin America mirrors the frist. “The approach seems characterized by a lack of a specific regional strategy, disinterest except for U.S. security concerns like immigration, an aggressive stance toward adversaries like Venezuela, and a preference for privileged relationships with select partners based on economic, security, or ideological alignment,” guida stated. He emphasized more continuity than change.
Guida believes the administration continues to pursue an “illiberal hegemony,” abandoning the liberal internationalism of previous administrations. This involves retreating from international commitments while maintaining a role as “security referee” and aggressively seeking immediate benefits, possibly harming opponents.
Immigration Policy: A Central Theme
Illegal immigration remains a key focus for Washington. Guida notes a continuity in managing migration, albeit with a more aggressive initial approach. He recalled Trump’s focus on Mexico’s role in containing immigration during his first term, including promises of a border wall.
Despite congressional resistance, Trump secured funding for approximately 454 miles of wall, combining new fences and strengthened existing barriers. The administration also pursued expulsion measures against illegal immigrants, including those protected by Obama-era programs, frequently enough facing legal challenges.
El Salvador’s President Bukele is now considered an vital partner. His crackdown on local criminal gangs has made him a key ally for the White House, with El Salvador offering its “mega-Carcere Cecot” prison to house criminal immigrants and even U.S. citizens.
During a meeting with Bukele, Trump accused “Chavism” of emptying prisons and sending criminals abroad, suggesting the use of the Alien Enemies Act. Guida views this as an unjustified, instrumental use of the act, fitting Trump’s aggressive approach and focus on tactical victories.
Reactions to deportations and Latin American Governments
Recent deportations of alleged gang members have drawn criticism from Latin American governments. While some continuity exists with the Biden administration’s policies,particularly towards the end of his term,Trump’s approach is marked by more aggressive rhetoric.
Data indicates that while deportations decreased under Biden compared to Trump, the expulsion of migrants under Title 42 resulted in approximately 4.4 million repatriations, a figure not seen since the George W. Bush era.
Initially critical of Trump’s immigration policies, some Latin American governments were forced to accept them due to bilateral agreements or threats of increased duties. Protests focused on the treatment of deportees and the White House’s dissemination of shocking images.
Governments like those of Lula (Brazil),Petro (Colombia),and Sheinbaum (Mexico) attempted to oppose these policies with limited success. Venezuela’s Maduro accused Trump of “Nazi” behavior and “kidnapping of human beings.” However,Latin American countries appear to have limited room for maneuver due to economic factors and a lack of interregional cooperation.
Trade Policies and Regional Impact
While the Trump administration has imposed new tariffs globally, Latin America has been relatively less affected compared to China or the european Union. Brazil, Argentina, El Salvador, and Colombia have been largely excluded from recent duty increases.
Guida explains this as a cost-benefit evaluation, recognizing Latin America’s importance as an economic partner. He suggests the administration prioritizes targeting major adversaries like Europe and China. However, he cautions that regional economies still face risks due to their trade relationships.
Mexico’s Peculiar Case
Mexico’s situation is complex, with existing tariffs and new duties on certain imports, alongside talks of differentiated duties. Predicting the evolution of negotiations is arduous due to the Trump administration’s volatile decision-making.
Mexico and the U.S. have a strong economic interdependence, solidified by the USMCA. The Mexican government and businesses are concerned about Trump’s aggressive stance and potential negative impacts on the upcoming 2026 USMCA renegotiation.
Brazil’s Response and Potential Tensions
Brazil has responded strongly, approving a law imposing surtaxes on U.S. products. Guida views this as a response from a major Latin American country with an economy deeply linked to the U.S., but governed by a progressive government ideologically distant from the trump administration. He anticipates potential intensification of commercial tensions.
Regional Agreements and Economic Independence
Trump has consistently rejected multilateral approaches, favoring bilateral relationships. He withdrew the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and revised NAFTA into the USMCA. Guida expects the U.S. to remain in the USMCA on its own terms but sees little chance of broader engagement with agreements like Mercosur.
Argentina’s Economic Situation
Despite the recent depreciation of the Argentine peso, President Milei promises to control inflation, supported by international financial institutions. Guida argues that while macroeconomic data may show advancement, the social situation remains dire, with poverty reaching unprecedented levels due to Milei’s economic policies.
U.S. Trust in Milei’s Reforms
The recent visit of the U.S. Secretary to the Treasury to Argentina suggests U.S. trust in Milei’s reforms, based primarily on ideological affinities. Guida characterizes Milei as a far-right leader prioritizing the interests of large corporations, willing to curtail rights and suppress social conflict.
Ecuador’s Pro-Trumpian President
The re-election of Ecuador’s pro-Trumpian President Noboa could lead to positive relations between the two countries. However, Guida cautions that Trump’s support is conditional, potentially focusing on shared interests like combating drug trafficking.