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U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright warned on Thursday that national average gasoline prices could remain above $3 per gallon through at least next year, citing sustained global demand and limited spare production capacity as key factors preventing a significant drop in fuel costs.

Speaking at the CERAWeek energy conference in Houston, Wright said that while U.S. Crude oil production remains strong, refiners are operating near full capacity and global inventories remain tight, limiting the ability to quickly lower prices even if crude oil costs decline.

“We’re not seeing the kind of supply elasticity that would allow prices to drop sharply,” Wright told reporters. “Even if crude falls, refining bottlenecks and strong demand — especially from transportation and industrial sectors — are keeping upward pressure on retail fuel prices.”

The national average price for regular gasoline stood at $3.42 per gallon as of April 2026, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), up from $3.15 a year earlier. Prices have remained elevated since late 2023, driven by OPEC+ production constraints, post-pandemic demand recovery, and geopolitical tensions affecting shipping routes in key regions.

Wright acknowledged that increased domestic output from shale formations in Texas and New Mexico has helped stabilize supply, but noted that permitting delays for new refinery upgrades and environmental reviews continue to slow infrastructure expansion.

The Secretary also pointed to diesel and jet fuel markets as areas of particular concern, where inventories are lower than seasonal averages and demand remains robust, increasing the risk of localized price spikes during peak travel periods.

While the Biden administration has previously released strategic petroleum reserves to ease price pressure, Wright indicated that such measures are now being used sparingly, with reserves drawn down to approximately 360 million barrels — near the lowest level since 1984.

He emphasized that long-term price stability will depend on expanding refining capacity, accelerating approvals for biofuel blending, and encouraging investment in next-generation fuels, though he acknowledged these efforts face regulatory and market hurdles.

Industry analysts have echoed Wright’s outlook, with the U.S. Oil and Gas Association projecting that national gasoline averages are unlikely to fall below $3 per gallon before mid-2027 unless there is a significant economic downturn or unexpected surge in global oil supply.

For consumers, the sustained price level means transportation costs will continue to influence household budgets, particularly in rural and suburban areas where vehicle dependency remains high. Wright urged drivers to consider fuel-efficient vehicles and trip consolidation as practical ways to mitigate individual expenses.

The Energy Department said it will continue monitoring global market conditions and coordinating with international partners to assess supply risks, but stressed that near-term relief at the pump is unlikely without broader structural changes to the refining and distribution network.