Trump and Xi: Political Survival, Not Just Rivalry
Populism Undermines Stability in US-China-Taiwan Relations
This article argues that populism,with its focus on spectacle and projecting strength,is making the relationship between the US,China,and taiwan increasingly fragile and prone to disruption.
Here’s a breakdown of the key points:
* Performance vs. Interests: while populist rhetoric emphasizes dramatic gestures (like tariff threats or military posturing),the underlying interests of all three parties are actually geared towards de-escalation. The US wants economic benefits and cooperation on issues like fentanyl, China needs access to technology and markets, and Taiwan desires stability to avoid miscalculation.
* Brittle Arrangements: This disconnect between performance and genuine interests leads to short-lived and easily broken agreements, like the recent “managed pause” achieved in Busan. Any incident – PLA activity,US export controls,or even political statements – could quickly unravel progress.
* Erosion of Long-Term US Policy: Trump’s personalization of China policy, seeking “swift wins,” encourages Beijing to negotiate with him directly, bypassing established institutions. This leads to demands that are unsustainable and ultimately increase the risk of future conflict. Any concessions Trump makes will likely be reversed by Congress and the bureaucracy, further destabilizing the situation.
* danger for Taiwan: Taiwan is caught in a challenging position. When both the US and China engage in nationalist displays, Taiwan feels compelled to respond, but doing so only empowers hardliners in Beijing – the opposite of what Taiwan wants.
In essence, the article suggests that the focus on appearing strong through populist tactics is actively undermining the potential for a stable and predictable relationship between these three key players in the region.