Trump, China, and the Shifting Geopolitical Influence in Asia

Opinion-makers and thought leaders within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) now prefer China over the United States as the region’s preferred superpower, according to a report released on April 7, 2026. The findings, published in the State of South-east Asia 2026 report by the ASEAN Studies Centre at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, indicate a reversal of the trend observed in 2025.

The survey reveals that 52 per cent of those surveyed would choose to align with China, while 48 per cent prefer the United States. This shift occurs as concerns regarding the foreign policies of U.S. President Donald Trump have become the primary geopolitical fear for the region.

Trump’s Foreign Policy as a Primary Concern

The ISEAS survey explicitly identifies President Trump’s leadership as a significant source of geopolitical anxiety for ASEAN. His foreign policies were named as the top concern by 51.9 per cent of respondents.

This level of concern now surpasses fears regarding aggressive behavior in the South China Sea, which was cited by 48.2 per cent of respondents. Other significant concerns identified in the report include global scam operations, which were highlighted by 51.4 per cent of those surveyed, and the border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, cited by 40.5 per cent.

The shift in sentiment reflects a broader perception that China is in a stronger position to expand its influence in the Indo-Pacific during the second Trump administration, as U.S. Influence in the region declines.

Trust and Regional Partnerships

Despite the preference for China as a superpower, the report indicates that ASEAN members maintain high levels of trust in other international partners. Japan remains the most trusted partner in the region, with a trust rating of 65.6 per cent, followed by the European Union at 55.9 per cent.

The preference for China does not come without reservations. The survey found that China’s domestic interference remains a key concern for 30.3 per cent of the respondents.

The data suggests that while China is viewed as the more preferred superpower in a binary choice, ASEAN continues to desire a strategic balance between the two powers rather than a total alignment with one side.

Broader Indo-Pacific Implications

The changing dynamics in Southeast Asia are part of a wider shift in the Pacific Rim. Analysts suggest that changing U.S. Priorities beyond the region under the current administration may be contributing to this decline in influence.

In the Philippines, there are indications of a political shift that could potentially result in a more China-friendly administration in Malacañang, the official residence and workplace of the President of the Philippines.

These developments suggest that the second Trump administration’s pivot is placing the Pacific Rim at the center of a global power shift, with China benefiting from the perceived instability or withdrawal of U.S. Diplomatic and strategic priorities in the region.

The ISEAS report highlights a critical juncture for U.S.-Asia relations, as the perceived reliability of U.S. Foreign policy under President Trump becomes a deciding factor in how ASEAN nations navigate their relationships with the world’s two largest economies.