Trump & NJ Governor’s Race 2024: Key Issues
The 2024 New Jersey governor’s race is shaping up to be a referendum on Donald Trump’s influence, with Democratic nominee Mikie Sherrill directly challenging Jack Ciattarelli’s ties to the former president. Analysts predict the race will be impacted by historical trends, as NJ voters frequently enough choose a governor from the party opposite the White House. Republicans hope to leverage Trump’s increased approval ratings and shifts among nonwhite voters to flip the state house. News Directory 3 keeps a close eye on the changing voter registration numbers that will influence the election. Discover what’s next in this vital New Jersey contest.
Trump’s Shadow Looms over New Jersey Governor Election
Updated June 11, 2025
As Rep. Mikie Sherrill and Jack Ciattarelli prepare for the New Jersey governor election, the influence of Donald Trump has already taken center stage.Sherrill, the Democratic nominee, is highlighting Ciattarelli’s connections to the former president. Ciattarelli, who previously ran in 2021, secured the Republican nomination after gaining Trump’s endorsement.
Democrats are banking on historical trends. New Jersey voters often elect a governor from the party opposite the one controlling the White House. This pattern has held true in nearly every race for the past four decades. The Democrats successfully used this strategy eight years ago when Phil Murphy defeated Kim Guadagno by 14 points, linking her to then-President Trump, whose approval rating in the state was just 33 percent.
AP; Getty
However, Republicans believe the Trump factor could play out differently this time. In last year’s presidential race, Trump lost New Jersey by 6 points to Kamala Harris, a smaller margin than his previous defeats in 2020 and 2016. A recent PIX11/Emerson College poll indicated Trump had a 47% job approval rating in New Jersey, considerably higher than during the 2017 campaign. This is also higher than Murphy’s 40% approval rating.
It remains to be seen if Trump’s standing has shifted since mid-May. His improved performance in New Jersey last year raises questions about a potential broader shift toward the GOP, particularly among nonwhite voters. Republicans are hoping increased interest and overall turnout in the gubernatorial race will level the playing field.
Voter registration statistics offer some encouragement for Republicans. Since last November, Republican registrations have remained steady, while Democrats have lost over 60,000 enrollees. This contrasts with 2017, when Democrats were gaining ground in new registrations.
History also provides a point of reference. democrats have held the New Jersey governorship for two consecutive terms. Since 1981, attempts to secure a third consecutive term have consistently failed.
What’s next
The coming months will reveal whether the Trump factor and shifts in voter demographics will reshape the political landscape of New Jersey, potentially ending the democrats’ hold on the governor’s office.