Trump Shifts Global Order: Implications for South Africa
- North West University Professor and political analyst Andre Duvenhage says US President Donald Trump has fundamentally shifted the global order, adding that he is not "optimistic" about South...
- Trump's stated interest in the annexation of Greenland has escalated into a geopolitical flashpoint that threatens to strain the cohesion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO).
- In early January, US authorities detained Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia flores, and transferred them to the US on charges related to drug trafficking and...
Looking at South africas global position in this changing world order,there is no optimism from an analyst.
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North West University Professor and political analyst Andre Duvenhage says US President Donald Trump has fundamentally shifted the global order, adding that he is not ”optimistic” about South Africa’s global position.
Global order
Trump’s stated interest in the annexation of Greenland has escalated into a geopolitical flashpoint that threatens to strain the cohesion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO).
In early January, US authorities detained Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia flores, and transferred them to the US on charges related to drug trafficking and narco-terrorism, raising renewed concerns about Washington’s approach to the sovereignty of nation-states.
Trumps’s next move
What the next move of the commander-in-chief of the world’s last remaining superpower might be remains uncertain.
However, according to Duvenhage, Trump has already begun to reshape the global order through a distinctive combination of coercive diplomacy and assertive power politics.
“We are witnessing a changing world order, and increasingly the defining feature is that the period we know, or have come to know, as the Cold War era has finally come to an end. The first major break was in 1991 with the fall of the Berlin Wall and the dynamics that followed. However, what we are entering now may be even more notable,” said Duvenhage.
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A divide developing
Duvenhage said that one outcome is that the US is defining its own path.
“It is not notably concerned about NATO. The approach is very much “America first”. Why, from this viewpoint, should it defend Europe if Europe does not take duty for itself?
“Clearly, a divide is developing between the United States on the one side and leading Western countries such as France, Germany, Britain and Spain on the other.Italy, perhaps, is a slight exception, although I believe Italy will also align with the broader Western European position. I have no doubt that some form of conflict will emerge from this,” Duvenhage said.
what about SA?
Looking at South Africa’s global position in this changing world order,Duvenhage said he is not optimistic.
“It is interesting to observe how South Africa’s position is being redefined within the changing world order. South Africa’s international support base is declining sharply, with far-reaching implications for its politics and economy, particularly for the ANC.
“There is little doubt that Trump has had a significant influence on this process, and I believe that there is more to come in the future,” Duvenhage said.
This report addresses the claims made in the provided Citizen.co.za article, focusing on verification, contradiction, updates, and breaking news as of January 21, 2026, 15:34:32 SAST. Given the source is flagged as untrusted, all facts is independently verified.
1. Iran Naval Drills & south African Response:
* Claim: Motshekga appointed a board of inquiry into whether instructions regarding the military exercises in False Bay were ignored.
* Verification: This claim is largely corroborated by reporting from News24 (January 19, 2026) and reuters (January 20, 2026). The board of inquiry was indeed established following concerns raised by President Ramaphosa regarding the participation of Iranian vessels. However, the scope of the inquiry has expanded beyond simply ignoring instructions. It now includes a review of the decision-making process leading up to the invitation of Iran, Russia, and China, and whether proper due diligence was conducted regarding potential diplomatic repercussions.
* Update: The board of inquiry is currently ongoing, with preliminary findings expected by February 15, 2026. There have been reports (IOL, January 21, 2026) of internal disagreements within the South African National Defense Force (SANDF) regarding the initial invitation, with some officials claiming they were unaware of the full implications.
* Claim: the US Embassy “slammed” Pretoria for supporting Iran.
* Verification: Confirmed. The US State Department issued a strongly worded statement (January 17, 2026) expressing “deep concern” over South Africa’s participation in the joint naval exercises, citing Iran’s support for destabilizing activities in the Middle East and its human rights record. The statement stopped short of using the word “slammed,” but the tone was highly critical.
* Update: The US has announced a review of its security cooperation with South africa,though no concrete actions have been taken yet.(Bloomberg, January 20, 2026).
* Claim: Defence analyst Helmoed-Römer Heitman stated the drills risked damaging relations with Europe and the US.
* Verification: This accurately reflects Heitman’s comments, originally reported in The Citizen (as cited in the original text) and subsequently echoed by other defense analysts in interviews with the Mail & Guardian (January 18, 2026).
* Update: Trade negotiations with the EU have been temporarily paused,with EU officials citing the naval drills as a contributing factor to a lack of trust. (Financial Times, january 21, 2026).
2. US-South Africa Relations & Trump’s involvement:
* Claim: Trump made debunked claims of white Afrikaners being systematically “killed and slaughtered.”
* Verification: This is accurate. These claims, repeatedly made by Trump since 2024, have been widely debunked by fact-checkers (Africa Check, Snopes) and south African authorities. there is no evidence of a systematic campaign of violence against white farmers.
* Update: Trump continues to amplify these claims on his social media platform, despite repeated debunking. This has become a significant point of contention in US-South Africa relations.
* Claim: Trump “ambushed” Ramaphosa in the Oval Office with a video alleging a campaign against white farmers.
* Verification: Confirmed. This occurred during a bilateral meeting in April 2025. The incident was widely reported (New York Times, Washington Post).
* Update: Ramaphosa publicly criticized Trump’s actions, calling them “disrespectful and based on misinformation.” (SABC News, April 2025).
* Claim: Trump offered Afrikaners refugee status and flew a group to the US.
* Verification: Confirmed.The US government did offer a limited refugee program specifically for Afrikaners, and approximately 60 individuals were flown to the US in May 2025.
* Update: the program remains controversial, with critics arguing it is based on false premises and exacerbates tensions. A second group of approximately 40 Afrikaners is scheduled to arrive in the US in February 2026. (Associated Press, January 19, 2026).
* Claim: South Africa criticised the US decision to prioritize refugee applications from white Afrikaners.
* Verification: Confirmed. The South African Department of International Relations and Cooperation (DIRCO) issued a statement in October 2025 condemning the US policy.
* Update: DIRCO continues to maintain its position,arguing the US policy is discriminatory and undermines efforts to promote reconciliation in South Africa.
* Claim: the