Trump Tariffs: Belgium Faces Further Economic Impact After One Year

Belgian industry faces escalating economic headwinds as the full impact of US tariffs implemented by President Donald Trump begins to materialize. A recent study by ING bank warns that the worst is yet to come for Belgian exporters, while Febeliec, the Federation of Belgian Industrial Energy Consumers, is sounding the alarm over persistently high electricity prices. These challenges come as Belgium navigates the ongoing repercussions of the war in the Middle East, further complicating the economic outlook.

According to an analysis by Belgium’s economy ministry, Trump’s tariffs on Belgian exports are projected to cost over €4 billion this year. However, economists suggest that a significant portion of this burden will likely fall on US importers and consumers rather than Belgian exporters themselves. Hans Dewachter, chief economist at Belgian bank KBC, stated, “The largest part of the tariff bill is being paid in the US itself.”

The situation is particularly acute for Flanders, where preliminary calculations by Prime Minister Matthias Diependaele (Flemish nationalist N-VA) indicate that import duties on Flemish products have surged from €376 million to €2.9 billion annually. Diependaele described the tariffs as an “incomprehensible move” and warned of additional inflation and reduced purchasing power for citizens.

The port of Antwerp, a crucial hub for international trade, is bracing for uncertainty. Alfaport, the umbrella organization for businesses in the port, expressed concern about the potential shift in exports away from the US. Stephan Vanfraechem of Alfaport noted, “America is our trading partner number one. It remains to be seen whether businesses that export to the US will continue to do so. We may see a shift in exports towards countries other than the US.”

Double Blow for Belgian Industry

Belgian businesses are contending with a “double handicap,” according to Febeliec. European electricity and gas prices remain substantially higher than those in other parts of the world, and electricity costs in Belgium continue to exceed those of neighboring countries like Germany and France. The industry’s electricity price disadvantage currently stands at 6 to 17 percent, even before factoring in the recent price spikes caused by the war in the Middle East.

Febeliec’s annual study, completed on February 16th, 2026, prior to the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, revealed that network costs and taxes in Belgium have remained relatively stable. However, the energy cost itself has risen in line with the broader European trend. Prices in Flanders and Wallonia are higher than in Germany and France, but lower than in the Netherlands, with some exceptions for large consumers in Wallonia.

Government Response and Concerns

Belgian Foreign Minister Maxime Prévot has urged caution regarding energy supplies and Middle East tensions, stating there is “no reason to panic” but emphasizing the need for continued vigilance. The EU is reportedly preparing countermeasures in response to the US tariffs, though details remain scarce.

The Belgian Employers’ Federation (VBO) highlighted the dual impact of the tariffs – both on direct trade with the US (Belgium’s fourth-largest trading partner after Germany, France, and the Netherlands) and on exports of semi-finished components to other European countries that ultimately export to the US. Olivier Joris of the VBO emphasized the interconnectedness of the global supply chain and the potential for widespread disruption.

A year after President Trump unveiled his “Liberation Day” tariffs, global trade appears bruised but not broken, according to recent analysis. However, the situation in Belgium suggests that the full consequences of these tariffs are still unfolding, and the combination of trade barriers, high energy prices, and geopolitical instability presents a significant challenge to the nation’s economy.

The ING study serves as a stark reminder that the initial impact of tariffs may not fully reflect the long-term economic consequences. As the situation evolves, Belgian businesses and policymakers will need to adapt to a changing global trade landscape and mitigate the risks posed by ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty.